WASHINGTON: The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits was unchanged at higher levels last week as labour market conditions continued to steadily ease.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits held steady at a seasonally adjusted 248,000 for the week ended June 7, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 240,000 claims for the latest week.
Claims could remain elevated, with the school year ending this month as some states allow non-teaching staff to collect benefits during the long summer holidays.
Though there have been no widespread layoffs as employers hoard workers amid economic uncertainty spawned by President Donald's aggressive tariffs, the labor market is steadily losing steam. An immigration crackdown by the White House is also slowing employment gains. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 139,000 jobs in May, down from 193,000 a year ago.
A lagging measure of employment, the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), has suggested a much slower pace of job growth between April 2024 and December 2024 than reported in the survey of establishments from which the nonfarm payrolls data is compiled. Economists said this partly reflected reduced labor supply because of immigration restrictions imposed by former President Joe Biden's administration in mid-2024.
The QCEW data is derived from reports by employers to the state unemployment insurance programs. Economists said the QCEW data raised the possibility that payrolls could be revised substantially down from April 2024 through May 2025. Much would, however, depend on the QCEW data for the first quarter.
"All things considered, we think the 2025 benchmark revision is most likely to revise down job gains from April 2024-March 2025 by 800,000-1.125 million, with the range for August's preliminary benchmark announcement about 200,000 higher," said Jonathan Millar, a senior economist at Barclays.
"This would trim monthly payroll gains over the benchmark period by about 65,000-95,000 per month relative to the current estimate of approximately 150,000 per month."
The claims report showed the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, increased 54,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.956 million during the week ending May 31. Recently laid off workers are struggling to find work, though the median duration of unemployment dropped to 9.5 weeks in May after surging to 10.4 weeks in April. - Reuters
