KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysian palm oil will likely trade between RM3,800 per tonne and RM4,200 per tonne until the second quarter of 2023 (Q223), as palm oil production is forecast to recover slightly next year.
Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) chief executive officer Wan Aishah Wan Hamid said the higher demand for palm oil, volatility of Brent crude oil prices, and geopolitical tensions remain factors in determining price direction.
She said over the past few weeks, the palm oil price has started to see an upward trend due to a combination of weaker Malaysian ringgit and supply worries due to floods in both Indonesia and Malaysia.
Wan Aishah believes that this would keep palm oil prices upbeat and remain between RM4,000 per tonne and RM4,400 per tonne until December 2022.
“For the medium term, the ongoing Russia and Ukraine conflict will still be a factor and palm oil supply growth will likely plateau next year.
“We forecast that price will likely remain between RM3,900 per tonne and RM4,300 per tonne until March 2023,” she said during her presentation at the Palm Oil Internet Seminar yesterday.
In terms of palm oil stocks, she said the Malaysian palm oil stocks had been on a declining trend from December 2021 to April 2022 resulting in higher prices recorded as stock levels have an inverse relationship to price. However, since May 2022, stock levels have been rising and prices have declined.
In September 2022, the local palm oil stocks exceeded 2.3 million tonnes, the highest level in 18 months, but palm oil prices further declined to the lowest level since June 2021, she said.
Meanwhile, local palm oil production is set to decline for a third year in 2022 as worker shortage in plantations continues to hamper harvesting in the country.
MPOC expects crude palm oil production in Malaysia in 2022 to reach 18.08 million tonnes.