PETALING JAYA: Commodity markets are under pressure as the geopolitical tensions continue to disrupt supply chains, increase price volatility and dampen global trade.
BIMB Research said the price of Brent crude oil surged to US$109 per barrel in April this year before correcting sharply in the middle of the same month.
“On April 10, 2026, prices fell to US$95.20 per barrel and to a lower US$90.40 per barrel on the 17th of that month as improved sentiment from ceasefire negotiations and assurances on Strait of Hormuz access led to an unwinding of risk premiums,” it said in a report.
This didn’t last long, as Brent rebounded strongly to US$105.3 per barrel by April 24, 2026 and went even higher to US$114 by the end of April as persistent Middle East tensions reintroduced supply concerns.
“April was characterised by sharp swings but saw a recovery towards the end of the month. Consequently, we raise our 2026 Brent forecast to US$95 per barrel, with slower-than-expected recovery in shut-in supply posing upside risk to our estimates,” BIMB Research noted.
As for gold, the research house said amid geopolitical tensions and ceasefire optimism, it initially extended gains above US$4,800 per ounce.
It added prices fell below that range ahead of the ceasefire deadline and remained under pressure following its extension, reflecting softer safe haven demand and muted buying interest.
“Despite ongoing geopolitical risks, gold was weighed down by rising oil prices, inflation concerns and expectations of prolonged higher interest rates, which reduced the appeal of non-yielding assets.”
The research house concluded that for the month of April, gold saw a sideways consolidation with a slight downward bias, reflecting a balance between geopolitical support and tighter monetary conditions.
BIMB Research said its in-house forecast remains unchanged at US$5,400 per ounce.
Meanwhile, the research house said the crude palm oil (CPO) prices are high for now, as sustainability lies in the downcycle.
Prices fell steadily in the first half of April 2026, hitting a low on the 17th amid profit-taking and easing sentiment before rebounding in the second half, briefly surpassing RM4,600 per tonne and stabilising within the RM4,550 to RM4,600 per tonne range.
BIMB Research said even with the intra-month volatility, prices remained relatively elevated.
