Japan’s hopes for a visit by Donald Trump during his trip to Asia next month may be hanging in the balance as relations between China and the United States steadily improve.
The US president spent three days in Japan ahead of last year’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit, and his meeting with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi was hailed as a sign of a “new golden age” in the countries’ relationship.
But since then Trump’s growing rapport with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping has caused concern in Japan, which has seen its own relationship with Beijing deteriorate sharply following controversial comments by Takaichi about Taiwan.
According to sources familiar with the matter, Tokyo has been lobbying for Trump to stop in Japan next month to signal the strength of their alliance.
Trump will attend the Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit in the Philippine capital Manila on November 16 and 17 before heading to Shenzhen, where he will meet Xi for the third time this year. The South China Morning Post was the first to report that Trump planned to attend the Asean gathering.
The sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorised to speak publicly on the matter, said Japanese officials were keen for Trump to stop in Japan before the Apec event because it would give Tokyo the chance to influence Trump’s talks with Xi.
They would also be happy for him to visit after the summit, but the sources said there was little indication that Trump would add Japan to his Asian itinerary.
They added that he had already met Takaichi three times this year, most recently on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York in September a day before Xi arrived in Washington.
The US and Japanese leaders also met in Washington in March ahead of Trump’s visit to China and at this year’s Group of Seven summit in France. The pair also spoke by telephone after both of Trump’s meetings with Xi.
Both the US and Japan are dialogue partners for Asean, and Trump is expected to see Takaichi in Manila so he “may feel less of a need to visit Japan despite ongoing efforts to arrange a visit”, one source said.
Tokyo’s relations with Beijing have been icy since Takaichi said last November that a crisis in the Taiwan Strait could be a survival-threatening situation for Japan that would justify military intervention.
Her refusal to retract the comments angered Beijing, which has long been wary of Japan’s military build-up and regards Taiwan as a “red line” that must not be crossed.
In retaliation, Beijing suspended official and cultural exchanges, cut flights to Japan and banned exports of dual-use items, including rare earths and other critical minerals, to Japan’s defence industries.
Beijing regards Taiwan as part of its territory and has never renounced the use of force to reunite it with mainland China.
Japan and the US, in common with most countries, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state.
Tokyo has been asking Washington to press Beijing to ease its export restrictions, and the SCMP has previously reported that Trump raised Japan’s grievances about these curbs when Xi visited Washington last month.
He framed the Chinese measures as a threat to US industries that relied on Japanese suppliers and as an indirect violation of last year’s US-China trade truce.
Jeremy Chan, a senior analyst at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, said Tokyo was always keen to demonstrate the strength of the US-Japan alliance when a US president visited the region, especially amid warming ties between Washington and Beijing.
“A visit by Trump to Japan is the greatest symbol of the importance that Washington places on the US-Japan alliance,” he said.
“Tokyo can never receive enough reassurances from Washington, and it is particularly anxious that President Trump could strike an agreement with Chinese President Xi Jinping that harms Japanese interests.”
Takaichi must also consider the domestic political implications, Chan added, saying that her approval depended in part on her ability to manage relations with the US.
Mong Cheung, a professor at Waseda University’s school of international liberal studies, said Japan might also be seeking to “regain the upper hand” after Xi’s trip to the US and hoped a visit would show that Tokyo remained Washington’s “top ally” in Asia.
Japan would also want to coordinate with Trump on China policy before he met Xi, he added.
Cheung cited Bill Clinton’s visit to China in 1998, when the US president did not visit Japan. The snub prompted widespread criticism in Japan, and Tokyo had sought to prevent a repeat of that incident, he said.
But Chan said Tokyo could probably live with Trump skipping Japan this time.
“Trump will also hold a bilateral meeting with Takaichi at either the Asean or Apec summits. This will give her another opportunity to remind Trump of the importance of Japan to the US ahead of his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Shenzhen,” he said.
“Tokyo cares deeply about sending a signal to Beijing that closer US-China ties will not come at the expense of US-Japan relations.”
Last week, a group of senior US diplomats, administration officials and military commanders met in Tokyo in what sources described as a meeting to coordinate the priorities and messaging for Trump’s visit to Asia.
They also met foreign vice-minister Takehiro Funakoshi and held a courtesy phone call with Foreign Minister Motegi Toshimitsu.
The Japanese foreign ministry said Tokyo had stressed the importance of the alliance and a free and open Indo-Pacific during these meetings. -- SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
