HANOI (Bloomberg): Vietnamese officials are warning of mounting challenges in pursuing the government’s ambitions of hitting 10% annual economic growth.
The notes of caution came amid a raft of data over the weekend that show an economy running hot, averaging 9% growth in the first three quarters, along with a surge in exports and foreign investment pledges.
The drive to hit double-digit growth "creates significant pressure and poses major challenges,” Prime Minister Le Minh Hung told a cabinet meeting on Saturday, according to a government post.
Top among those, he said, is increasingly challenging economic management as the government accelerates public investments.
The Southeast Asian manufacturing powerhouse has seen activity pick up on multiple fronts this year, despite the threat of US tariffs and the global energy shock from the Iran war.
But robust domestic consumption and investment are also creating demand-side pressures on inflation, Nguyen Thu Oanh, head of the statistics office’s price department, said Saturday.
"As capital continues to flow into production, investment and consumption, its impact could become more evident in the final months of the year,” she said. The impact could extend into 2027, "especially in sectors where supply is constrained, such as construction, energy, and transportation.”
Those demand-side risks are being compounded by sustained high oil prices from continued US hostilities against Iran and broader tensions in the Middle East.
With inflation almost hitting 5.1% last month, bringing it back down to a 4.5% target will be difficult given "limited room to maneuver amid mounting price pressures in the final months of the year,” she added.
The red flags over inflation and investment add to the warnings in August by the central bank, when it cautioned that rapid credit growth was outstripping banks’ ability to mobilize funds and creating risks to the stability of the financial and monetary system.
Still, the government remains committed to the 10% goal, according to the prime minister’s comments, with agencies instructed to implement measures "drastically” to meet the target originally set by President To Lam and baked into the ruling Communist Party’s five-year plan.
Growth would need to accelerate to at least 12.5% this quarter to tip the full-year average to 10%, the statistics body said on Saturday. That’s a pace Vietnam has only hit once, notching 13.7% in the third quarter of 2022 and averaging about 7% since then, according to government data.
Hung, the prime minister, directed ministries to fully disburse the 2026 public investment plan and keep key projects on schedule, while tightening price controls to keep inflation within target, according to the government post.
Other measures include ensuring adequate supplies of essential goods, cracking down on hoarding, speculation and smuggling, and keeping electricity prices unchanged, it said.
The government will also cut capital allocations for ministries and provinces that move too slowly and redirect funds to projects that can absorb them, deputy finance minister Nguyen Duc Chi told reporters at a briefing on Saturday.
Foreign investment pledges were up 76% in the January-September period compared to a year ago, while disbursed FDI grew 12%, according to the data on Saturday. Robust industrial production propelled exports to a gain of 39% last month. On the domestic front, retail sales grew by a healthy 14%, led by hotels, restaurants and tourism. -- ©2026 Bloomberg L.P.
