A meeting next month between the leaders of the world’s three biggest nuclear powers is possible but hinges on the three sides finding common ground and setting realistic expectations about outcomes, according to analysts.
National Day congratulations from Moscow to Beijing on Thursday fanned speculation that the leaders of China, Russia and the United States could meet at the Apec summit in Shenzhen next month.
In a letter to Chinese President Xi Jinping on Thursday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said his meeting with Xi at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) forum would be “productive” and help strengthen the two countries’ comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation.
US President Donald Trump is also expected to attend the forum, which will be Putin’s first since 2017.
The possibility of a meeting between the three men was raised publicly by Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Bishkek on September 1. Asked about the possibility of such a meeting, Ushakov said “this issue was discussed”.
Liu Xu, a research fellow at the National Academy of Development and Strategy at Renmin University of China, said the possibility of a trilateral meeting “remained high”.
“Because China and the US are expected to have four meetings this year, different occasions will naturally create different expectations for outcomes,” Liu said.
He said that for Putin, a meeting with Trump and Xi would have symbolic weight by showing that despite its continued confrontation with much of the West over the Ukraine war “Russia remained a major player in international affairs”.
With the war well into its fifth year, Western sanctions have eroded Russia’s economy and Putin’s authority at home.
But Sun Chenghao, a fellow at Tsinghua University’s Centre for International Security and Strategy, said that while the three leaders might be attending the same summit, that did not mean they would have a formal trilateral meeting.
“There is a realistic possibility, but there is still a distance between attending the same summit and agreeing to hold a formal trilateral meeting,” Sun said, adding that they might have informal talks instead.
China, as host, could facilitate communication among the three leaders, but the key question would be whether they could identify a common agenda and develop reasonable expectations about the outcome, he said.
“A brief exchange or informal meeting has a relatively lower threshold, while a trilateral summit with a clearly defined agenda would require more preparation,” Sun said.
For Beijing, a trilateral meeting could open another channel for managing relations with both Washington and Moscow, according to analysts.
Liu said China had not sought to publicly lead mediation between Russia and Ukraine, instead calling for a political settlement.
“But a meeting of the three leaders could demonstrate China’s willingness to play a greater role while allowing Beijing to balance its relationships with Russia and the West,” he said.
Sun said the larger significance of a trilateral meeting for China would be turning its ability to maintain communication with both Washington and Moscow into a practical mechanism for reducing confrontation among major powers.
“It would demonstrate China’s constructive role in promoting dialogue and maintaining stability,” he said.
Trump also invited Putin to attend the Group of 20 summit in Miami in December but according to a Bloomberg report last week, Kremlin sources said the chances of Putin going were slim. -- SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
