US soybean growers are “adapting” to a steep decline in China-bound exports by selling to third countries and the American biofuel sector, compensating enough to cause only a small drop in production, according to a top trade association’s chief economist.
In November, Beijing committed to buy at least 25 million tonnes of American soybeans annually through 2028, as part of an agreement reached after China stopped the purchases during US President Donald Trump’s trade war in early 2025.
But just slightly more than 12 million tonnes of last year’s crop are “on track” to reach China, which usually imports twice that amount per year to rank as the US crop’s top overseas buyer, said Scott Gerlt, chief economist with the American Soybean Association.
“While we would love to see more soybeans sold to China, US soy has been adapting through two other outlets,” Gerlt told the South China Morning Post on Monday.
One outlet, he said, was increased sales to other foreign buyers and the other was growth in demand from biofuels.
The association represents more than 500,000 soybean farmers, who are concentrated in the US Midwest and cover a combined 83.6 million acres (33.8 million hectares).
In the end, Gerlt said, growers have indicated little change in soybean production.
“A lot of factors go into planting decisions, and there is always volatility in the final acreage numbers due to weather,” he said. “However, our analysis indicates a small decrease in production due to trade issues.”
The American soybean crop, which in some years has been valued at US$60 billion, also counts Mexico, Egypt, Indonesia and Europe as key export markets.
The biofuel sector used a record 1.43 billion pounds (648.64 million kg) of soybean oil in May, up 17 per cent from April, according to the commodity price reporting agency Fastmarkets.
US biofuel is booming because of federal government mandates for clean and renewable fuel, as well as increasing corporate demand for lower-carbon transport.
Chinese importers of the crop, also a staple animal feed, have turned to Brazil as an alternative source since the trade war restarted last year.
Gerlt said the association hopes China resumes accepting American shipments.
“China has historically been the largest export market for US soybeans, and continued, reliable access to that market remains essential for US soybean farmers,” he said.
“We are hopeful this will resume to normal levels for the crop in the ground with China’s agreement to purchase at least 25 million tonnes per year.” -- SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
