Solar is poised to overtake coal as China’s largest source of installed power capacity this year, as Beijing steps up its green transition with a renewed emphasis on efficiency, quality and orderly growth over sheer scale.
Total installed solar capacity reached 1.27 billion kilowatts (kW) by the end of June and was projected to surpass coal before the end of the year, state-run People’s Daily reported on Wednesday, citing the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA).
Solar power generation also surged more than 40 per cent year on year in the first half of 2026, meeting one-third of peak electricity demand during midday heatwaves.
Reflecting the transition, coal-fired power generation accounted for less than 50 per cent of total electricity generation for the first time on record in the first half of the year, according to the latest data from the National Energy Administration (NEA), with output totalling 2.5 trillion kilowatt-hours.
The growth in solar comes as Beijing continues to place renewable energy at the centre of its climate and energy strategy, with the government targeting further expansion in solar and wind power capacity as part of efforts to meet the country’s 2030 carbon-peak goal.
Under a road map for renewable energy targets over the next five years released last week, total installed solar and wind capacity was projected to exceed 2.8 million kW by 2030, up from 1.84 million kW in 2025.
That would put renewable energy at more than half of total installed capacity, generating 30 per cent of electricity output by the end of the decade, according to the plan.
Even so, Beijing stressed the need to prioritise quality alongside growth, aiming to provide a more “reliable replacement” for fossil fuels. Improved operational efficiency across power generation, grid transmission and end use would be needed, as well as a shift from raw expansion towards economic value, according to an explanation by the National Development and Reform Commission, China’s top economic planner.
The domestic solar manufacturing sector has grappled with prolonged price competition following years of rapid capacity expansion, prompting Beijing to enforce greater industrial discipline while maintaining broad support for renewable deployment.
In the first half of this year, the sector’s pace of expansion slowed sharply. Newly installed solar panel capacity plunged 66 per cent year on year to about 72 gigawatts (GW), down from 212.21GW in the same period last year, according to NEA data released last week.
Addressing a CPIA event last week, Wang Bohua, former secretary general of the association, noted that the decline in new installations showed the industry was returning to a more rational pace after reaching what he called “abnormal” levels last year.
On Monday, the CPIA published cost-calculation guidelines designed to verify compliance and enforce rules against below-cost selling. The framework was developed under the guidance of the State Administration for Market Regulation and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.
“China’s solar panel sector has moved past the phase of sheer capacity growth and entered an era of high-quality development focused on efficiency, value addition and broader applications,” said Shen Xinyi, senior adviser at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air think tank.
The sector’s long-term prospects remained certain, she added, noting that solar power served as a “vital pillar” of low-carbon electricity. Backed by a complete industrial supply chain, it continued to drive down clean energy costs and safeguard energy security, she said.
“However, solar power remains intermittent and requires coordinated support from energy storage, flexible coal-fired plants and wind power,” she cautioned.
“The real battlefield is moving from raw capacity expansion to grid absorption and creating value in multi-scenario uses.”
