KATHMANDU: The delayed and sluggish advance of the south-west monsoon has begun taking a visible toll on Nepal’s agriculture, with fresh government data showing that padi transplantation has been completed on only 32.38 per cent of the country’s cultivated area as of Monday (July 6).
The figure marks a significant slowdown compared to the same period last year, when 45 percent of padi fields had already been transplanted. Delayed transplantation leaves young seedlings vulnerable to peak pest infestations and unfavourable weather, slowing plant growth and ultimately reducing productivity.
According to the latest data from the Department of Agriculture under the Ministry of Agriculture, padi has so far been transplanted on 443,595 hectares out of the country’s total 1.37 million hectares of land designated for padi cultivation during the monsoon season.
Despite the slower pace, government officials and agricultural experts say there is no immediate cause for alarm.
“We don’t have to worry yet,” said Rajendra Koirala, spokesperson for the Department of Agriculture. “Concern will arise only if transplantation continues to lag from the first week of August. The monsoon has only recently begun spreading gradually from east to west.”
Padi transplantation schedules vary across Nepal depending on rainfall patterns and topography. In the upper hills, transplantation is generally completed by mid-June. In the Tarai—the country’s food basket—it usually begins in early July and can continue until early September, depending on water availability.
The Tarai (lowlands) accounts for 71 pecent of Nepal’s total rice cultivation area, followed by the hills with 25 pecent and the mountains with four per cent.
Last year, below-average rainfall delayed transplantation in Madhesh Province, affecting both production and productivity.
Officials say the slow onset of this year’s monsoon has left vast stretches of farmland dry and lacking adequate soil moisture, forcing farmers to postpone transplantation while waiting for sustained rainfall.
The monsoon officially entered Nepal on June 19, six days later than its normal arrival date of June 13.
Regional forecasts by South Asian meteorologists suggest Nepal is likely to receive below-normal monsoon rainfall this year, ending three consecutive years of above-average precipitation.
Monsoon rains are critical for Nepal’s Rs6.6 trillion (US$43.3 billion) economy, providing nearly 80 per cent of the water needed for agriculture while replenishing reservoirs and groundwater reserves.
With nearly half of the country’s farmland lacking irrigation facilities, agriculture remains heavily dependent on rainfall between June and September. The monsoon is therefore regarded as a key macroeconomic factor, closely watched by policymakers, investors and consumers.
Agriculture contributes about 24 per cent of Nepal’s gross domestic product and provides employment to more than 60 per cent of the population. As rural incomes largely depend on agricultural output, the strength of the monsoon has a direct impact on household spending and overall economic activity.
Experts warn that a combination of below-normal rainfall, fertiliser shortages and high fuel prices could place additional strain on Nepal’s already fragile economy, posing a challenge for the new Rastriya Swatantra Party-led government, which has pledged to achieve annual economic growth of seven per cent and raise per capita income to at least US$3,000.
The government has also committed to expanding the economy to nearly Rs100 trillion within the next five to seven years while creating jobs and improving public service delivery.
Rajendra Uprety, a rice expert, also believes it is too early to predict the season’s outcome.
“So far, although rainfall has been irregular in eastern Nepal, transplantation has progressed relatively well because of irrigation and groundwater pumping facilities,” he said.
“We should be concerned only if transplantation remains weak in Koshi, Madhesh and Lumbini provinces, which together account for nearly one million hectares of padi land. At the current pace, we expect transplantation to be completed by the end of July, although it is running slightly behind schedule.”
A provincial breakdown shows that Sudurpashchim has made the most progress so far.
According to the department, padi has been transplanted on 89,742 hectares out of the province’s total cultivation area of 154,950 hectares, representing 57.9 per cent completion.
Even so, the province remains behind last year’s performance, when transplantation had reached 82.8 per cent by the same period.
Gandaki province ranks second, with transplantation completed on 38,389 hectares, or 41 per cent of its total 93,606 hectares of padi fields.
Karnali province follows closely, with transplantation completed on 17,549 hectares, or 40.5 per cent of its total 43,290 hectares under padi cultivation. During the same period last year, transplantation had reached 55.6 per cent in Gandaki and 71.7 per cent in Karnali.
In Lumbini province, where padi is cultivated on 301,372 hectares, transplantation has been completed on only 112,509 hectares, equivalent to 37.3 per cent of the total area. By the same time last year, the province had achieved 52.1 per cent transplantation.
Bagmati province has also recorded slower progress. Of its total 114,524 hectares of padi land, only 38,026 hectares, or 33.2 per cent, have been transplanted, compared to 51.9 per cent during the same period last year.
Koshi province has completed transplantation on 87,033 hectares, or 31.5 per cent of its total 276,387 hectares of padi fields. This is slightly ahead of last year’s 29.5 per cent at the same stage.
The weakest performance has been recorded in Madhesh province, Nepal’s largest rice-producing region.
Despite having the country’s largest padi cultivation area—385,933 hectares—only 60,346 hectares had been transplanted by the first week of July. This represents just 15.6 per cent of the total cultivated area, the lowest among all seven provinces.
During the corresponding period last year, Madhesh had completed 25.1 per cent of its padi transplantation. - The Kathmandu Post/ANN
