BANGKOK: Association of Thai Travel Agents (ATTA) has cut its 2026 Chinese tourist arrival forecast from 9 million to 7 million, citing safety concerns, ransom and disappearance reports, scam-linked crime fears and rising travel costs.
Thailand’s hopes for a stronger recovery in Chinese tourism are being shaken by renewed safety concerns, with ATTA cutting its 2026 Chinese arrival forecast from 9 million to 7 million after reports of ransom cases, disappearances and scam-linked crime damaged confidence in the Thai market.
Thanapol Cheewarattanaporn, president of the Association of Thai Travel Agents (ATTA), said on Thursday (June 4, 2026) that Chinese tourist arrivals this year were now expected to reach around 7 million, below the 9 million previously projected at the beginning of the year.
He said the weaker outlook was being driven by two major pressures: Thailand’s damaged safety image among Chinese travellers and rising travel costs caused by higher oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict.
Safety now the biggest obstacle
Thanapol said safety concerns had become the most serious challenge for Thailand in the Chinese market, as they directly affected travellers’ decisions.
He pointed to continuing reports involving Chinese nationals allegedly being held for ransom or disappearing shortly after arriving in Thailand. Concerns linked to call-centre scam networks have also added to anxiety among Chinese visitors.
Such stories have spread quickly across Chinese social media and short-video platforms, he said, further hurting Thailand’s image as a safe destination.
Confidence has been weakened even further by claims circulating online that some Thai state officials or police officers may have links to criminal groups. Thanapol said these allegations had caused heavy damage to Thailand’s reputation, regardless of whether individual cases had been fully proven.
China places safety first
Thanapol said China places safety as its top priority when considering overseas travel, meaning negative news about crime and tourist protection can have an immediate impact on travel demand.
He said Thailand’s response had not yet been strong or clear enough in the eyes of the Chinese market.
ATTA is urging the Thai government to introduce more concrete safety measures and communicate them clearly at the national level. Thanapol said authorities must show that Thailand is taking the issue seriously and has a clear plan to prevent, respond to and explain such incidents.
Government urged to set measurable action plan
ATTA wants the government to set out a step-by-step safety strategy, including what will be done first, what follow-up actions will be taken, and how success will be measured.
Thanapol said the lack of a clear national response had left Chinese tour agents increasingly cautious. Some agents now view Thailand as a weakening market and no longer want to spend time reassuring customers about safety issues.
As a result, operators in China have reduced investment and slowed marketing campaigns for Thailand, he said.
Higher oil prices add pressure on charter flights
Apart from safety concerns, the conflict in the Middle East has also affected the Chinese tourist market by pushing up oil prices and increasing aviation costs.
Thanapol said higher fuel costs had made it more difficult to manage charter flights, while more expensive air tickets were discouraging travel.
The combination of weaker confidence and higher costs means Chinese arrivals are now likely to fall short of the earlier target.
ATTA turns to new Chinese markets
Despite the difficult outlook, ATTA and tourism operators are trying to stimulate demand by targeting new Chinese markets.
The association has launched roadshows in Urumqi in Xinjiang and Lanzhou, which are seen as high-potential areas with less exposure to negative news about Thailand than major southern Chinese cities.
Thanapol said Xinjiang and Gansu are large provinces with strategic importance along the Silk Road route and could offer new opportunities for Thai tourism.
ATTA is also pushing for charter flights from Urumqi to Thailand from August, aiming to attract new groups of Chinese travellers who are eager to travel overseas.
Xinjiang is also considered a strategic gateway that can connect travellers to other regions, including Dubai and Europe.
Thailand told to rethink tourism promotion
ATTA also called on the government and tourism-related agencies to review Thailand’s tourism promotion structure.
Thanapol said Thailand should focus not only on attracting Chinese tourists to visit Thailand, but also on promoting two-way tourism by encouraging Thais to travel abroad.
He said this would help create a better balance in the aviation industry and support stronger tourism exchanges between countries.
He also urged Thailand to step up tourism marketing at the national leadership level, citing Malaysia as a key competitor. Malaysia has actively promoted itself in China and opened direct flights between Kuala Lumpur and Urumqi to attract Muslim Chinese travellers.
Thanapol said Thailand must move faster if it wants to protect its share of the Chinese outbound market. - The Nation/ANN
