BANGKOK: The drought situation in 2026 is expected to be more severe than in previous years, with the Thai Meteorological Department forecasting a 61% probability that conditions will shift into El Nino during May-July 2026 and remain that way until the end of the year.
For Thailand, the expected impact during May-July 2026 is that total rainfall across the country will be below normal, while temperatures are likely to be slightly higher than normal.
The Hydro-Informatics Institute (Public Organisation) has also assessed that Thailand’s temperatures are likely to be slightly above normal, while rainfall will be below normal. It expects rainfall in 2026 to be close to 2012 levels, when total rainfall stood at 1,479 millimetres and one storm entered Thailand.
That level is below the 30-year average of 1,500 millimetres. In 2025, when La Niña conditions prevailed, rainfall stood at 1,816 millimetres.
Rainfall is also forecast to be above normal in some areas of the North, Central region, East and the west coast of the South. Below-normal rainfall is expected across most of the Northeast, in the eastern provinces of Chanthaburi and Trat, and in the South.
El Nino fears push rice importers to build stocks as Thailand watches drought risk
Seri Supratit, director of the Climate Change and Disaster Centre at Rangsit University, said the world is clearly shifting into an El Niño phenomenon from the middle of this year, with a probability of more than 80%. The phenomenon is expected to peak towards the end of the year.
Although El Nino is generally associated with lower rainfall and hotter weather, this does not mean flooding will not occur, as weather variability remains high.
Thailand is expected to experience above-normal temperatures throughout the year, while average annual rainfall is likely to be below normal, potentially affecting available water reserves in 2027.
“From the beginning of the year to mid-year, or between May and August 2026, many areas across the country may face water shortages, especially areas outside irrigation zones,” he said.
El Nino fears push rice importers to build stocks as Thailand watches drought risk
The Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE) has estimated Thailand’s 2025/26 rice output at 35.44 million tonnes of paddy, comprising 26.99 million tonnes of main-crop rice, down 0.32%, and 8.45 million tonnes of off-season rice, down 1.63%.
The main reasons are weather conditions, including dry spells, and water limitations in some areas, which have reduced some cultivation areas, even though the average yield of off-season rice has increased to 654 kilogrammes per rai.
The OAE also expects prices to decline because global rice supply exceeds demand, particularly after India resumed white-rice exports. At the same time, major importers such as the Philippines and Indonesia have sufficient rice reserves and have therefore slowed purchases.
Chukiat Opaswong, honorary president of the Thai Rice Exporters Association (TREA), said rice exporters are monitoring the super El Nino situation now affecting Thailand and many other countries around the world.
The phenomenon has prompted several major rice-importing countries to begin building rice reserves to strengthen domestic food security and prepare for the risk of damage to domestic production.
This situation means Thai rice exports in 2026 have a chance of meeting the target of 7 million tonnes, after exports during the first four months fell short of target at only 2.2 million tonnes. Conditions in other countries are as follows:
El Nino fears push rice importers to build stocks as Thailand watches drought risk
Malaysia is a clear example. Because of super El Nino, the country has expanded its rice reserve stock from three months to nine months, meaning it will need to make significantly larger purchases.
The Philippines is the market most worth watching. This year, it is expected to import as much as 6.5 million tonnes of rice, almost double last year’s level of more than 3 million tonnes.
India remains a key variable to monitor and could affect the recovery of the rice market. India holds large rice stocks, which are helping prevent global rice prices from rising too sharply.
However, if India faces severe El Nino conditions, food-security concerns for its population of 1.5-1.6 billion people could prompt the Indian government to slow or restrict exports, opening the way for Thailand to receive more substitute orders.
“Demand at this level has caused global rice prices to start rising. Vietnamese 5% rice has now climbed to US$400 per tonne, while Thai rice of the same grade is around US$408 per tonne, up from the previous level of US$350-370 per tonne. This is a positive signal indicating that the market is beginning to tighten,” Chukiat said. - The Nation/ANN
