Hong Kong authorities have put a plan to launch basketball betting on hold amid the rapid growth of the prediction market, seven months after lawmakers passed a bill to legalise the activity.
The Jockey Club, which had been expected to operate the new wagering, said in an internal notice it respected the government’s decision.
The club previously estimated that authorised basketball betting could generate HK$1.5 billion (US$191.5 million) in tax revenue annually, although a source said it could take three to four years to reach that level.
A spokesman for the Home Affairs and Youth Bureau said on Monday night that any betting on sports in prediction markets was illegal.
Launching basketball betting under the current circumstances would likely draw more attention to and participation in illegal prediction market gambling, indirectly fuelling underground activity, he said.
“Given the latest developments, the government considered it necessary to study the emerging model and platform in greater depth,” he said.
“To protect public interest from harm, new betting projects should not proceed until conditions are mature.”
Prediction markets are platforms where people buy and sell contracts on the outcomes of future events, with the prices directly reflecting the crowd’s collective probability estimate.
The bureau pointed to data showing that the trading volume of prediction markets hit US$64 billion last year, a 300 per cent increase from US$16 billion in 2024.
Global monthly trading volume rose from less than US$100 million at the start of 2024 to more than US$13 billion by the end of last year.
The bureau said the rapid growth of prediction markets might bring considerable uncertainty to the betting industry, with projections suggesting monthly trading volume could increase fivefold by 2030, with more than 40 per cent related to sports.
In the internal notice seen by the South China Morning Post, the club said it would wait for the government’s further advice on its licence application.
The club was committed to assisting the government in combating illegal betting and welcomed the enactment of the Betting Duty (Amendment) Ordinance 2025 last September, it said.
“As such, the club has been carrying out essential preparatory work with substantial investment to ensure that we are ready to launch basketball betting as early as late 2026,” it said.
The notice said the government had moved to review the negative impacts of prediction markets, including wagering on basketball and the club would offer to help with the study.
Illegal and offshore betting continued to pose increasing competitive pressure and it was critical the club remained resilient, competitive and ready to respond, it said.
The club said the strategy to build a new sports wagering platform as part of its IT strategy remained unchanged, and it would continue to build a product covering basketball that could be launched within three to six months, subject to the outcome of a licence application.
The bill passed by the Legislative Council empowered the secretary for home and youth affairs to issue basketball betting operator licences with specified terms.
It also authorises a licensed basketball operator to place bets with other gambling operators for hedging purposes.
A previous government letter to the legislature said that a licence for basketball betting would be issued to the club “to avoid leading to competition among operators and stimulating betting demand”. -- SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
