JAKARTA: Until recently, Dini Khairani topped up her fuel only once every two weeks, waiting until her tank neared empty.
Now, the Jakarta resident refuels every two to three days – and rarely lets the gauge fall far below from full.
“Just one or two lines below F already triggers me to look for a nearby pump station. Fuel prices can rise significantly anytime, or worse, fuel could become scarce,” the 47-year-old wardrobe consultant told The Straits Times on April 6.
Dini’s anxiety reflects a broader unease taking hold as global oil prices surge amid escalating tensions in the Middle East. Across social media, Indonesians are watching fuel shortages and long queues in other countries, and wondering if they could be next.
Amid growing anxiety on the ground, the government is urging calm – revealing a widening gap between lived reality and official messaging.
On April 6, Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa told a parliamentary committee that Indonesia can maintain subsidised fuel prices through 2026, even if crude averages US$100 a barrel.
“We are ready... Don’t panic. We have made our calculations. We can manage (fuel subsidies) with the existing budget,” he said, drawing applause from lawmakers.
His words echoed what he told journalists at a Ramadan gathering to break fast almost a month ago – that Indonesia has weathered high oil prices before.
Dr Purbaya, 61, has described his communication as “cowboy style” after apologising for brash remarks he made on his first day on the job.
But such confidence raises a key question: Can policymakers afford to sound so certain in these troubled times?
Energy prices make up roughly a third of Indonesia’s inflation basket, according to Mr Gundy Cahyadi, research director at the Jakarta-based Prasasti Center for Policy Studies. Sustained increases could push up business costs and threaten jobs, he noted.
That risk is compounded by Indonesia’s heavy reliance on subsidies. The government has allocated 381 trillion rupiah (S$28.7 billion) this year to keep fuel, electricity and cooking gas affordable, based on an assumed oil price of US$70 a barrel.
With prices now hovering around US$105 a barrel, that assumption is under strain. Each US$1 increase per barrel could widen the fiscal deficit by as much as 6.7 trillion rupiah.
Indonesia, a net oil importer, cannot absorb such pressures indefinitely. Its budget deficit is legally capped at 3 per cent of gross domestic product, a limit designed to enforce fiscal discipline. Even before the latest price surge, the deficit had reached 0.53 per cent of GDP in the first two months of the year. The deficit for 2025 was 2.92 per cent.
Dr Piter Abdullah, an economist and executive director of Segara Research Institute, estimates the deficit could hit 3.3 per cent if global oil prices stay at US$100 a barrel. That projection does not yet factor in weaker tax revenues from softer consumer demand and slowing economic growth, he added.
Signs of strain are already emerging. Indonesia’s Tourism Ministry said on April 1 that the country could lose up to 60,000 international visitor arrivals, which translates to about 2 trillion rupiah in potential earnings.
At the same time, fiscal pressures are mounting from President Prabowo Subianto’s flagship Free Nutritious Meals programme, which is expected to cost 335 trillion rupiah this year.
The president has shown little willingness to scale back spending, in part to sustain a targeted GDP growth rate of 5.4 per cent.
The result is a narrowing policy space: cutting subsidies risks public backlash, but maintaining them could stretch state finances to the limit.
Communication is key
Complicating matters further is the government’s communication strategy.
Dr Purbaya isn’t the only official projecting confidence amid crisis.
Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia recently sought to reassure the public by noting that Indonesia imports refined fuel from regional suppliers rather than directly from the Middle East. The implication was that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz would have limited impact.
His podcast was quickly challenged online. Commentators pointed out that countries like Singapore rely on Middle Eastern crude, meaning any disruption would ripple through supply chains.
Netizens created content mocking the logical gaps in Mr Bahlil’s statement. Among them was Jeffry Kuandy, who posted an online video, saying: “Indonesia imports fuel from Singapore… Singapore imports crude oil from the Middle East, and it is shipped via the Strait of Hormuz before Singapore refines and exports it to Indonesia. So, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz absolutely affects Indonesia.”
He added that this information was easily verifiable on the Internet.
The episode highlights a broader concern: whether official messaging is keeping pace with public scrutiny in the digital age.
What would help quell public anxiety is transparent calculations to explain how the state coffers can sustainably absorb the mounting pressure. Analysts say what is missing is not necessarily policy preparation, but transparency.
There needs to be “clear communication” regarding what the government has prepared and is contemplating, said Gundy. “Stress testing” may already have been done, but “it needs to be explained” to the public, he added.
That lack of clarity may already be affecting investor confidence. Indonesia experienced an US$80 billion (S$103 billion) market rout in late January, before Moody’s and Fitch revised the country’s credit outlook to negative, citing concerns over policy consistency and transparency.
As Indonesia braces itself for further geopolitical and economic shockwaves, it is unclear if the country’s policymakers are more focused on managing the turbulence over selling a narrative.
Dini and the general public’s unease with the looming energy crisis essentially underscores a disconnect between lived experience on the ground and the narrative that policymakers are advancing.
In a way, the dissonance has revealed the existence of two Indonesias: one where households and businesses brace themselves for disruption, and another where officials project confidence and continuity.
Popular podcaster Awalil Rizky said many people in Indonesia feel that the government’s “state of denial” – refusing to admit that Indonesia is facing a difficult situation – has compounded the problem.
“This is in stark contrast to many other countries that openly declared, ‘We are in an energy crisis, we are on the highest energy alert.’ Indonesia, on the other hand, insists that everything is fine and our reserves are sufficient,” Awalil said on his YouTube channel on April 3.
Bridging the gap between lived reality and official messaging will be critical in the months ahead.
If oil prices remain elevated, Indonesia will face difficult choices between fiscal discipline, economic growth and social stability. Managing those trade-offs will require not only sound policy, but also credible communication.
Reassurance alone may not be enough. In a climate of uncertainty, transparency could prove just as important as stability itself. - The Straits Times/ANN
