MANILA: An international human rights coalition has warned that the ongoing war involving the United States, Israel and Iran is already pushing up oil prices and deepening economic hardship for Filipinos, as the Philippines remains heavily dependent on imported fuel.
In a statement released March 14, the International Coalition for Human Rights in the Philippines (ICHRP) condemned what it described as the “US-Israeli war on Iran,” saying the attacks have triggered economic consequences far beyond the battlefield.
“The US-led strikes have resulted in widespread killings of civilians and are wreaking havoc on oil prices and thus the costs of living for people across the world,” the group said. “These attacks must immediately be put to an end.”
Oil supply disruption fears
The coalition said one of the most immediate economic risks stems from tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic shipping route through which a significant share of the world’s oil supply passes.
“The closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a consequence of unprovoked US-Israeli aggression against Iran has already led to significant economic costs for the Philippines,” ICHRP said.
It said gasoline price increases linked to the disruption have already pushed the country to adopt emergency measures, including reducing the workweek in some sectors to four days in an attempt to conserve fuel.
“The continuance of the US-Israeli war on Iran has catastrophic day-by-day consequences for the Philippines,” the coalition said.
The Philippines is among the Asian economies most exposed to global oil price shocks because it imports the vast majority of its fuel. The group said the country imports about 98% of its oil from the Middle East, much of which passes through the Strait of Hormuz.
“If the conflict continues, the country is expected to experience projected increases of 7.48 pesos per liter for petrol and 17.28 pesos for diesel,” the group said.
Fuel price surge already hitting consumers
The warning comes as Filipino motorists face one of the steepest fuel price spikes in recent years.
Industry estimates show diesel prices may climb by P19.30 (US$0.32) to P22.30 per liter, while gasoline prices could rise by P14 to P17 per liter starting March 17 as the Middle East conflict disrupts global supply chains.
Earlier price adjustments linked to the crisis have already pushed pump prices sharply higher. In some areas, diesel has climbed to more than P100 per liter.
The Department of Energy has repeatedly emphasized that fuel prices in the Philippines are largely determined by global markets under the country’s deregulated oil industry, limiting the government’s ability to directly control pump prices.
Ripple effects across the economy
For many households, the consequences extend beyond higher gasoline bills.
ICHRP warned that rising fuel prices will likely cascade through the broader economy by pushing up transportation costs, production expenses and food prices.
“Prices could lead to increased costs for goods and services, potentially resulting in higher inflation and higher unemployment,” the coalition said.
“Rising fuel prices push up the operating costs for farmers, transport workers, and small businesses, which in turn lead to higher food prices and economic pressure on households.”
Recent reporting has documented how the spike in fuel prices is affecting several sectors.
Farmers and fisherfolk have said rising diesel costs are increasing the cost of producing food, with some warning the trend could worsen the country’s food situation if it continues.
Transport drivers and small business owners have also reported shrinking incomes as fuel expenses eat into their earnings.
Peasant groups have warned that higher fuel costs could eventually push up food prices if production costs continue to climb.
Electricity costs also rising
The surge in global energy prices is also beginning to affect electricity bills.
Power distributor Manila Electric Co. (Meralco) earlier raised electricity rates this month by 64 centavos per kilowatt-hour, pushing the overall rate to P13.8161 per kWh.
Energy officials have warned that the Middle East crisis has not yet been fully reflected in current power rates, meaning consumers may face further increases in the coming months.
Wider risks: gas and fertiliser supply
Beyond oil, the coalition also warned that the disruption could affect other essential supplies tied to Middle East shipping routes.
The group said around 91 per cent of the Philippines’ liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) — widely used for cooking — is shipped through routes passing the Strait of Hormuz.
It also said roughly seven per cent of the country’s fertiliser imports come directly from the Middle East.
Supply disruptions could ripple through regional fertiliser markets as well, since major suppliers such as China, Indonesia and Malaysia rely on inputs affected by the same shipping routes.
“The disruption will lead to increased fertiliser prices and reduced availability,” the coalition said.
A prolonged disruption, it said, could ultimately threaten food production and food security both in the Philippines and across the region.
Calls for stronger government response
ICHRP also criticised what it described as insufficient government measures to cushion the economic shock.
While authorities have introduced measures such as a shortened workweek and the possibility of fuel tax reductions when global oil prices exceed certain thresholds, the coalition said those policies may not be enough.
“Fuel tax reductions will be of limited effect as the price is currently well above these thresholds,” the group said.
The coalition warned that inflation and possible fuel shortages could remain major risks for the Philippine economy as long as the war continues.
“Inflation and potential fuel shortages are the key risks to the Philippines economy as long as the war continues,” it said.
Because oil and gas supplies have already been disrupted for more than two weeks, the group said the situation could evolve into a broader global economic crisis.
“These impacts will be most acute on the great majority of the people who already struggle with grinding poverty,” ICHRP said.
A recurring vulnerability
Economists have said the latest crisis highlights a long-standing structural issue for the Philippines: its dependence on imported fuel.
Global oil price shocks have historically reached Filipino consumers quickly because the country relies heavily on imports and has limited fuel buffers.
As previous analyses of the country’s energy system have shown, geopolitical disruptions — even those thousands of kilometers away — can quickly translate into higher fuel prices, electricity costs and food prices for Filipino households.
For now, with the war in the Middle East still unfolding, analysts have warned the economic ripple effects may only be beginning. - Philippine Daily Inquirer/ANN
