YANGON: Myanmar’s junta chief Min Aung Hlaing appears to be orchestrating a transition to a nominally civilian government, with analysts saying he is likely to hand over the military’s top post before assuming the presidency in late March.
General Ye Win Oo, 60, the former chief of military intelligence, was promoted to army chief in early March –replacing Vice-Senior General Soe Win, who retains his role as deputy commander-in-chief of defence services.
Analysts who spoke to The Straits Times widely expect Gen Ye Win Oo, a close aide and long-time protege of the junta leader, to become the next commander-in-chief when Senior General Min Aung Hlaing, who turns 70 this year, assumes the presidency after Parliament convenes.
Such a move would mark the first step in Myanmar’s transition to a nominally civilian government, five years after the military seized power in a coup.
The country remains locked in conflict between the junta and resistance forces, with nearly 93,300 people dead and 3.7 million displaced since the February 2021 coup, according to international crisis-monitoring group Armed Conflict Location & Event Data and the UN Refugee Agency.
The Assistance Association for Political Prisoners, a Myanmar human rights organisation, said the junta has arrested more than 30,600 people since the coup and about 22,500 remain detained.
Gen Ye Win Oo gained notoriety during the coup for allegedly overseeing interrogation units accused by rights groups and former detainees of using torture to extract information.
A retired senior military officer who wanted to be known only by his pseudonym Aung Gyi told ST that Gen Ye Win Oo “is not a reformer” and is likely to become Senior General Min Aung Hlaing’s “puppet”.
Researcher Naing Min Khant at the Institute for Strategy and Policy-Myanmar told ST that the two of them go way back, to when Senior General Min Aung Hlaing was an infantry division commander in the late 1990s and early 2000s.
As junta leader, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing’s circle of trusted allies has narrowed over the past five years.
But an independent consultant on Myanmar who wanted to be known only as Min said the junta chief likely finds Gen Ye Win Oo the least threatening due to their long acquaintance.
“He seems to have been personally loyal to Senior General Min Aung Hlaing from the very beginning, which has likely convinced the senior general that he will not turn against him,” said Min.
Min added that Gen Ye Win Oo has also “not been regarded as a particularly strong battlefield commander” – a quality traditionally valued and respected within the military.
“This has arguably made him less respected by rank-and-file troops, though more feared in recent years by fellow senior officers, as his intelligence role gives him access to information that could be used against them,” he said.
Aung Gyi said “combat officers are not happy” with his appointment, seeing him as a mere “paper general” and the junta chief’s “hatchet man”.
If Senior General Min Aung Hlaing does assume the presidency, Kasit Piromya, a former Thai foreign minister and former ambassador, believes “he will become more entrenched, more hardline and uncompromising”.
Speaking to ST in Bangkok, he urged the global community not to normalise relations with the Myanmar military while the country is still locked in a civil war.
Semblance of normalcy
In recent months, the junta has been attempting to legitimise its existence.
From December 2025 to January 2026, the military government held elections in three phases. The polls were criticised by the international community as “neither free nor fair” because they excluded large segments of the population, territory and political spectrum.
The junta-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party was declared the “landslide” winner. Asean, however, has said it does not recognise the outcome of the elections for now, after member states failed to reach a consensus.
Nevertheless, the military will reconvene the bicameral national Parliament – the 440-seat Lower House sits on March 16 and the 224-seat Upper House on March 18. The local state and regional Parliament sessions will begin from March 20.
Under the Constitution, 25 per cent of seats in each chamber are reserved for unelected military representatives. When Parliament convenes, MPs will nominate presidential candidates from the Lower House, Upper House and the military bloc, likely by end-March.
Yet, despite attempts by the junta leader to restore parliamentary procedures and project a return to normality, observers expect little change to the ongoing violent clashes among the military, ethnic armies and civilian resistance forces.
The ethnic armies and opposing civilian resistance forces – said to control at least 40 per cent of the territory – have also refused to engage in a dialogue with the military, which is still conducting air strikes.
To maintain his hold on the country, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing in February set up a Union Consultative Council, which has a broad mandate that allows it to oversee both the military and the country’s administration.
It is unclear who will sit on this council but many assume that if Senior General Min Aung Hlaing becomes president, he will retain full control.
“It is unrealistic to expect this new institutional arrangement to bring about a genuine democratic transition,” said the think-tank researcher Naing Min Khant.
“It is simply the status quo maintained under the iron fist of Senior General Min Aung Hlaing.” - The Straits Times/ANN
