The world’s two largest brewers faced starkly diverging realities in China in 2025 and rather than it being about taste or popularity, the contrast appears to largely boil down to a shift in the nation’s drinking habits, sparked – in part – by the economic downturn.
During the year, Budweiser Brewing APAC, the Asian subsidiary of the Belgian beer giant Anheuser-Busch InBev, posted its biggest decline in profit growth since 2020, with the company’s CEO Yanjun Chen stating last week, “Our performance in China in 2025 was below our potential.”
Conversely, just one day earlier, Heineken – the world’s second-largest brewer – said China was one of the top three contributors to Heineken’s net profit in 2025. Its CEO Dolf van den Brink called its China operation “an absolute success story”.
A large part of the divergence reflects a structural shift in how Chinese consumers drink beer – more at home and less in bars and restaurants, analysts say.
Both brands primarily target China’s premium beer segment but with different approaches, said Richard Lin, chief consumer analyst at SPDB International, an investment bank.
Entering China in 1995, Budweiser for years focused on channels like bars, pubs and high-end restaurants, where margins are higher, Lin added. According to data from Euromonitor, Budweiser APAC’s share of China’s premium beer market was close to 50 per cent in 2015.
Around the same time, Heineken struggled to gain China’s market share until it partnered with China Resources Beer, the largest brewer in China by sales volume, in 2018 to sell through the latter’s local distribution channel.
“What happened in the past few years was that the so-called on-trade channel has been performing poorly,” said Lin, referring to drinking at venues like bars, restaurants and karaoke boxes .
“Because in an economic downturn, you’ll find that restaurants come under tremendous operating pressure – especially high-end restaurants. And high-end dining is actually the biggest consumption occasion within the on-trade channel.”
In a report published this month, the China Alcoholic Drinks Association said a landmark turning point in 2025 was that channels, such as at-home consumption and online orders, have taken a larger share of volumes than traditional on-trade venues like restaurants and nightlife.
China’s economic slowdown has hit the middle class hard, compounded by regulatory crackdowns in recent years on sectors such as technology, real estate and after-school tutoring – industries that had long been major sources of white-collar jobs.
For years, they were the driving force of China’s strong spending power.
Last year, China also imposed an alcohol ban that forbids excessive dining and drinking in business banquets, which also hit China’s food and beverage sector.
“The industry shows a sign of stabilisation versus the previous year. However, in terms of on-premise recovery, we have not seen any significant improvement yet,” said Chen with Budweiser at the earnings briefing.
Chen said the company will step up its effort to activate its brands and innovation in the in-home channel and emerging channels including retail sales.
The success of Heineken in China comes from a low base, as well as its cooperation with its Chinese partner, China Resources Beer, a subsidiary of state-owned China Resources Holdings.
At an earnings briefing last August, Wei Qiang, a top executive at China Resources Beer, said the weakness in catering has not affected China Resources Beer as much, as its on-trade channel has gradually fallen to about 40 per cent from a peak of over 50 per cent, with the remaining 60 per cent of volumes coming from retail. -- SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
