As Russia-Ukraine peace talks resume this week, the former US ambassador to China said that while any possible role for Beijing should be welcomed, its participation must be taken with a grain of salt.
Speaking at the Brookings Institution in Washington on Tuesday, Nicholas Burns, the ambassador during the Joe Biden administration, cautioned that Beijing’s growing interest in Ukraine’s reconstruction was less a goodwill gesture than a strategic manoeuvre by a government that has aided Moscow throughout the war.
“They’re not neutral – they’re in Russia’s corner, diplomatically, economically and militarily,” Burns said.
His warning came after top Russian and Ukrainian negotiators met on Monday in Istanbul for their second round of talks in recent weeks. The two sides agreed to a large prisoner exchange but made little headway on a peace deal.
Kyiv had submitted terms in advance, calling for an immediate ceasefire, while Moscow waited until the meeting to deliver demands that included Ukraine’s recognition of Russian territorial claims as well as its renunciation of any ambitions to join Nato – conditions Ukraine swiftly rejected.
Burns’ comments reflected Washington’s growing concerns that China, by offering reconstruction aid to Ukraine, could buy its way into Kyiv’s post-war future while avoiding accountability for supporting Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war machine.
“It might not have been possible for Russia to continue the war at the intensity level that it has now without Chinese support,” Burns said, citing Beijing’s steady supply of microelectronics to the Russian defence industry.
“They haven’t developed a peace plan worth its name ... yet now they want to present themselves as part of the solution.”
Beijing has publicly floated the idea of contributing to post-war rebuilding, a position Kyiv has not rejected outright. But Burns contended that China should only play a role if invited by Ukraine – and then just in narrow, well-defined ways.
That distinction may become more important as the diplomatic landscape shifts. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has kept communication channels open with Beijing even as its support for Moscow hardens.
According to Burns, Chinese diplomats have shunned Ukraine’s ambassador in Beijing since the start of Russia’s invasion, favouring close ties with Moscow’s envoy instead. Still, Burns said he believed Ukraine has reason to stay engaged, since China’s economic clout in the Global South and its global reach give it influence few countries can ignore.
Jake Sullivan, Biden’s former national security adviser, had sounded this theme in Chicago last week, saying his administration also “believed in the need to compete vigorously with China”.
But Biden tried to constrain Chinese industrial dominance through US export controls, targeted tariffs and multilateral diplomacy, Sullivan said – an approach Burns suggested has frayed under Donald Trump’s more confrontational stance.
“In the last four months, the US-EU relationship over China has deteriorated,” Burns said. “And we’ve given that away in the Trump administration, which is a real shame.”
Europe, he said, had grown wary of Beijing’s role in the war – and any future peace.
“Support for Russia has driven a wedge between Beijing and the European Commission and Nato allies,” Burns said. Even neutral-leaning countries, he noted, have joined sanctions on Chinese firms that supply Russia with dual-use technologies.
Despite the backlash, China has made diplomatic inroads. Burns said that Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative investments and its “cynical” promotion of a hollow peace plan for the Ukrainian war in conjunction with Brazil earned it support among countries in the Global South and enabled it to frame the US and Europe as “warmongers”.
Introduced on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly last year, the plan called for an immediate ceasefire and a freeze on the conflict along existing lines of contact.
But the document notably did not call for the withdrawal of Russian troops from illegally occupied areas and was met with scepticism by US and European officials.
Burns said the plan “was just a piece of paper with nothing on it. But ... they shopped it around the General Assembly, and they got the support of a majority of countries at the UN General Assembly.
“That was one of our biggest diplomatic setbacks,” Burns recalled.
“We were defending Ukraine and trying to stop the war, but the Chinese didn’t want to devote any energy or commitment to actually doing the work of a mediator.”
Burns said the question of who shapes the post-war future is becoming more urgent. China may offer money, he said, but it should not be allowed to buy influence.
“Not having China call the shots is what’s best for Ukraine, in my judgment. And having them be asked in a very targeted way to help the Ukrainians rebuild, certainly, that’s something I think the Ukrainians would welcome,” he added.
