Workers’ Party MPs Louis Chua, He Ting Ru and Jamus Lim pictured on a Lunar New Year banner in Sengkang, Singapore. -- Photo: Jean Iau/SCMP
SINGAPORE (SCMP): When a fresh-faced Workers’ Party team in Sengkang, a new town in the northeast of Singapore, won the popular vote in 2020, ousting a cabinet minister who was slated to become part of the next generation of leaders, resident Maideen Abdul Kader was shocked.
But Maideen, who recalled his primary school being used as a polling station in 1959 when the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) began its uninterrupted reign in the city state, is not holding his breath for the multi-seat constituency to be won back by the PAP.
“Nowadays young people feel their demands aren’t satisfied. They also lose nothing if they vote for the opposition, so the mentality is ‘why not just try, nothing to lose’,” said 75-year-old Maideen, a retired accountant who has lived in Sengkang for 25 years.
In the last election, the Workers’ Party team comprising He Ting Ru, Jamus Lim, Louis Chua and Raeesah Khan garnered 52.12 per cent of the vote resulting in a shock victory against a PAP team that included labour chief Ng Chee Meng, then a minister in the Prime Minister’s Office.
Ng Chee Meng of the People’s Action Party takes part in a walkabout ahead of the 2020 general election in Singapore. -- Photo: Reuters
Ng told local media outlet The Straits Times earlier this month that running in the coming election was “on the table” and he was prepared if asked.
While Ng has not been revealed as one of the PAP’s representatives in Sengkang, the party has switched its line-up of representatives in Sengkang East three times in as many years.
Just over half of Sengkang’s residents were under the age of 40 as of last June, according to data from the Department of Statistics. Among those who were of voting age, more than 58 per cent were aged between 20 and 59, while just 19.2 per cent were 60 or older.
More than 86 per cent of the area’s residents lived in public housing at the time, higher than the national average of 77.8 per cent of resident households.
Residents told This Week in Asia that they had voted for the opposition in 2020 primarily for greater plurality in parliament.
“I saw it as helping to contribute to having more different voices in parliament rather than just yes men from the same party,” said a civil servant, 38, who declined to be named.
Singapore’s Deputy Prime Minister Heng Swee Keat (third from left) of the PAP walks past an opposition Worker’s Party campaign banner ahead of the 2020 general election. -- Photo: EPA-EFE via SCMP
He, like several other residents, said the scandal surrounding Khan’s departure had minimal impact on his perceptions of the party. Khan vacated her seat in 2021 over lies she told in parliament.
Party leader Pritam Singh is currently facing criminal charges for allegedly lying under oath to a parliamentary committee about the way he told Khan to handle the mistruths.
“Every political party has its share of scandals but I just wish she hadn’t dragged so many people down with her. It didn’t affect my opinion of the party, just my opinion of her,” the civil servant said.
Another resident, Gena Soh, 27, said she thought it was exciting to live in a place that was brave enough to vote for the opposition and take a chance on different political visions. “I felt like part of a greater movement to create more policy representation in parliament,” said Soh, a community builder.
For the PAP to reclaim Sengkang, Soh said it was important to her that the party fielded people with diverse perspectives who were allowed to voice their opinions even if they were bound by party discipline.
“When people vote for the opposition, it’s mostly for a representation of more diverse views. But if a PAP candidate can act on their views while being bound by party whip, I think we can vote more for the candidate rather than for the party,” she said.
Low Thia Khiang (left), secretary general of the opposition Workers’ Party, Chen Show Mao (second from right) and Pritam Singh (right) celebrate during the 2011 general election in Singapore. -- Photo: AFP
While large multi-seat constituencies may have benefited the PAP in the past, political analysts told This Week in Asia that the loss of a second one in Sengkang – after Aljunied fell to the opposition in 2011 – has shown that such groupings are now a high-stakes gamble.
“For the PAP, the use of large GRCs was more like a fixed-deposit account. Because they could put in weak links – unknown, fresh faces, who could then ride on the coattails of cabinet ministers while also satisfying a need for minority representation in parliament,” said Bilveer Singh, an associate professor of political science at the National University of Singapore.
“But over time, they’ve discovered that GRCs are no longer fixed-deposit accounts. One-party dominant states do not last forever in democracies.”
In Singapore, single-seat constituencies and multi-seat constituencies, or group representation constituencies, are drawn up by the Electoral Boundaries Report Committee which comprises senior civil servants. The committee, appointed by the prime minister, takes into account population shifts and new housing developments.
The multi-seat system was established in 1988 to ensure that the minority racial communities in Singapore would always be represented in parliament. GRCs such as Sengkang comprise three to six individuals with at least one MP of minority race.
Ethnic Chinese make up about 75 per cent of Singapore’s resident population while Malays account for 14 per cent and Indians 9 per cent.
The latest Electoral Boundaries Review Committee was formed on January 22, signalling the start of election procedures in the city state which must be held by November.
In announcing the formation of the committee, the elections department, which comes under the Prime Minister’s Office, said that the committee should seek to maintain the average size of GRCs, as well as the proportion of MPs elected from single-seat wards, and the average ratio of electors to elected MPs, at about the same level as in the last election.
These instructions marked a shift from the last three elections, when the committee was asked to reduce the size of GRCs or create more smaller ones.
Voters queue to cast their ballots at a polling station in Singapore on July 10, 2020. Singapore’s next general election must be held by November. -- Photo: EPA-EFE via SCMP
‘David vs Goliath’
The GRC system has drawn flak from opposition parties and critics for allowing the ruling PAP to continue its dominance. In July 2023, the opposition Progress Singapore Party presented a private member’s motion in parliament to abolish the system, saying it had deviated from its original purpose and served to entrench the dominance of the PAP.
Leader of the Opposition Pritam Singh argued the system allowed the PAP to gerrymander, pointing out that several single-seat opposition wards that were hotly contested were later redrawn into multi-seat constituencies in following elections.
Education Minister Chan Chun Sing defended the system in July 2023 by explaining that supporting the motion to abolish it could lead to a lack of adequate multiracial representation in parliament. He emphasised that this would contradict the founding philosophy of ensuring that the interests of minority communities were taken into account.
In 2021, constitutional law professor Kevin Tan questioned the prime minister’s discretion when it came to instructing the committee on the size of GRCs. He pointed out that the underlying rationale that drove the change in the number of GRCs and single seats and the call to reduce the size of GRCs after 2011 remained unclear.
“If these changes cannot be justified, they can be struck down as being irrational. Worse still, if it can be shown that the Prime Minister’s decision was actuated by some extraneous or collateral political purpose, the decision may well be struck down for bad faith,” Tan wrote.
Speaking to This Week in Asia, he called for parliament, instead of the prime minister, to oversee an independent boundaries committee, to ensure that the system was fair: “Why don’t we think institutionally, so that we can behave objectively?”
Independent political analyst Felix Tan said the GRC system seemed to be more advantageous to the PAP as it was able to field a large number of candidates, but over time other parties also attracted a significant number of professionals to run.
Supporters and office workers gather to listen to Singapore’s former prime minister Lee Hsien Loong, from the ruling PAP, in 2015. Photo: AFP
“It would seem that GRCs have become quite a battlefield between ministers and other credible candidates. It’s almost a case of David vs Goliath,” Tan said.
NUS political scientist Ja Ian Chong pointed out that there used to be an argument that the loss of a GRC by the PAP meant the loss of at least one minister and several members of parliament, along with the ability to manage constituency affairs.
“The experience with Aljunied and Sengkang demonstrates that such issues do not really affect the electorate negatively,” he said.
The Aljunied team that won the first-ever GRC to fall to the opposition in 2011 was led by Workers’ Party stalwart Low Thia Khiang. It led to the ousting of then-foreign minister George Yeo and has been under opposition control ever since.
The PAP could look to Potong Pasir, a single seat that it won back after 27 years, for inspiration. Renowned opposition politician Chiam See Tong did not defend his seat in 2011 after moving to contest in Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC, leaving his wife Lina Loh to run. Loh lost by just 114 votes, garnering 49.64 per cent of the ballots.
The ruling party had failed to entice voters in 2006 with a promise of S$80 million (US$59.3 million) for upgrades if they voted for PAP candidate Sitoh Yih Pin. Yet analysts agreed that the context of the PAP reclaiming Potong Pasir in 2011 was vastly different from Sengkang today.
Yet, analysts agreed that the context of the PAP reclaiming Potong Pasir in 2011 was vastly different from Sengkang today.
“In Singapore, personalities trump institutions. Only two opposition party politicians were ever praised by [Singapore’s first prime minister] Lee Kuan Yew: Chiam See Tong and Low Thia Khiang. These people had personalities that were bigger than their parties,” Singh said.
Moreover, Eugene Tan, a political observer and associate professor of law at the Singapore Management University, pointed out that Sengkang was a relatively new estate and the allure of upgrades might not be felt soon. “Upgrading is, in any case, no longer a viable election tactic. It will backfire as voters are more sensitive to unfair tactics,” he said.
He explained that not fielding a strong slate of candidates might lead voters to perceive the ruling party as lacking a genuine desire to reclaim the constituency. But he said there was no guarantee of victory, and the PAP wanted to avoid the potential loss of office-holders whenever possible.
“Sengkang is a headache for the PAP: it has been in opposition hands for only one parliamentary term unlike Aljunied or Hougang, which means the chances of winning it back are arguably the best. But the risks of losing a few political office-holders or even a minister may be regarded as an unmitigated disaster,” he said. - SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST
