SINGAPORE: China edges out the United States as South-East Asia’s preferred superpower by a narrow margin, if countries in the region were forced to choose between the two major powers, a survey has found.
The findings, published in the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute’s The State Of South-East Asia 2024 report on April 2, indicated a notable shift in sentiments among respondents from the region, who had leaned towards the US in the last four surveys.
Among the 1,994 respondents polled across the 10 Asean nations, 50.5 per cent indicated China as their preferred choice, while 49.5 per cent selected the US, when asked a hypothetical question on which country the region should choose if it was forced to align itself with either.
In the 2023 survey, only 38.9 per cent of respondents picked China, with 61.1 per cent opting for the US.
The 2024 survey was conducted online from Jan 3 to Feb 23 and polled respondents from academia, think-tanks, research groups, businesses, civil society, the media and regional or international organisations, as well as governments. They were screened on various criteria such as nationality, age, affiliation, education, general knowledge of Asean and level of interest in current affairs.
Respondents could take the survey in one of six language options: English, Bahasa Indonesia, Burmese, Khmer, Thai and Vietnamese.
First conducted in 2019, the annual survey aims to present a snapshot of the prevailing attitudes among people in a position to inform or influence policy on regional issues.
In the 2024 survey, China continues to be seen as the most influential economic power in South-east Asia, followed by Asean and the US.
China was perceived as the most influential political and strategic power in the region, followed by the US.
The Asean nations’ perception of the bloc’s political and strategic influence is also on the rise, according to the survey.
Despite the positive perceptions about China, concerns about its growing regional political and strategic influence persist, with 73.5 per cent of respondents expressing unease, up from 68.5 per cent in 2023.
Confidence in the US has also waned, with nearly 60 per cent of respondents concerned about its growing strategic and political influence in the region, up from over 40 per cent in 2023.
The waning confidence in the US could be attributed partly to the escalating rivalry between China and the US, said the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in the report.
Although most respondents were worried about the US’ growing influence, there were exceptions, including those in the Philippines, Singapore and Vietnam, who perceived US influence more positively.
On the issue of trust in the major powers, the level of distrust in China crept up in the 2024 survey.
Slightly over half the respondents indicated either “little confidence” or “no confidence” that Beijing would do the right thing when it comes to contributing to global peace, security, prosperity and governance. This was a slight increase from the 49.8 per cent in 2023.
Around a quarter were either “confident” or “very confident” that China would contribute positively, while the remaining quarter had “no comment”.
Among those who distrust China, 45.5 per cent think its economic and military power can be used to threaten their countries’ interests and sovereignty. More than a third of Singapore respondents had the same sentiment.
Levels of distrust towards China were higher than levels of trust in all Asean countries, except Laos. In particular, respondents from the Philippines, which has had a series of run-ins with China in the South China Sea, recorded the highest level of distrust.
Japan continues to be the region’s most trusted power, with 58.9 per cent of respondents expressing confidence in the country. The US was second at 42.2 per cent, followed by the European Union at 41.5 per cent, China at 24.8 per cent and India at 24.2 per cent.
While more respondents indicated trust towards the US than distrust, the findings show a significant drop in trust from more than half of the respondents in 2023, a sign that South-east Asia could be treading cautiously ahead of the US presidential election in November.
Negative sentiment towards the Joe Biden administration by way of US engagement with the region has also risen, as more than one-third of respondents felt that US engagement has decreased or decreased significantly in 2024.
On assessing the future of China’s relations with the Asean bloc, more than half of the respondents anticipated an improvement in the next three years. Those from Singapore and Myanmar held the most neutral stance on their countries’ relations with China, expecting the status quo will be maintained.
Among those who anticipate an improvement in future relations with Beijing, the region’s top concern was China’s growing economic dominance and political influence in their countries – a telling sign that China’s willingness to use coercion to achieve its aims does not sit well with most South-East Asians.
The top concern among Singapore respondents were China’s use of economic tools and tourism to punish the Republic’s foreign policy choices, as well as China’s interference in Singapore’s domestic affairs, including through social media and influence over the ethnic Chinese citizens in the country.
Bolstering Asean’s resilience and unity continues to be the most popular option among respondents to counter pressure from both the US and China amid escalating tensions.
The second-most popular option is adhering to Asean’s traditional stance of not siding with either China or the US, though support has slid marginally. Among Singapore respondents, this view rose to 35.9 per cent from 33.7 per cent in 2023.
On the findings, ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute director and chief executive Choi Shing Kwok said: “The results reflect heightened regional concerns over economic issues and the risk that unrestrained geopolitical rivalry can adversely affect the region’s interests in the short to medium term.”
On the other hand, the region remains hopeful that major powers can cooperate on issues of mutual benefit and welcomes other major powers in the region to engage more closely with Asean, said Choi. - The Straits Times/ANN
