Could South Korea’s newest ballistic missile trigger a regional arms race?

A new South Korean ballistic missile that is capable of hitting not just North Korea, but also Japan and China could trigger a regional arms race, an expert said.

During its Armed Forces Day on Saturday, Seoul released video of the domestically developed intermediate-range Hyunmoo-5 missile, which it claimed could carry the world’s heaviest warhead.

Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst in defence strategy and capability at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute, said the Hyunmoo-5 could carry a conventional warhead weighing up to nine tonnes, but could fly 3,000km (1,865 miles) if armed with a lighter warhead, that theoretically would be capable of hitting China and Japan.

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“Obviously, China will respond negatively, as might Japan, given that the missile could theoretically hit targets in Japan as well. But China has a massive and much more sophisticated conventional ballistic missile force that is far superior to what South Korea has,” he said.

“The Yoon government is clearly moving away from a focus purely on North Korea, and is seeking to adopt a regional power posture, with this missile part of that process.”

Ryu Yongwook, a specialist in East Asian studies at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at National University of Singapore, said it was still not clear if the Hyunmoo-5 could fly 3,000km with a heavy warhead, noting the missile had been designed for short and medium ranges of 300-800km.

Ryu added that to be able to hit most targets in China, the warhead carried by the missile could weigh no more than two tonnes.

“The main purpose of South Korea’s development of its cruise and ballistic missiles is to deter North Korea’s aggression rather than targeting China. Of course, neighbouring countries may interpret South Korea’s military development differently, thereby causing an arms race,” he said.

Retired Chinese colonel Yue Gang said the missile posed little threat to China.

“The missile is a short-range one. If it is deployed in the Seoul region, its range can only cover Shenyang in northeastern China. It also has a high launch trajectory and obvious tail flame. It’s easy to detect and intercept,” he said.

Sean King, senior vice-president and Asia specialist at Park Strategies, a New York-based business advisory firm, said Japan would not worry much about South Korea’s new missile, but Beijing might not be happy.

“Japan will know that [South] Korea’s missile and defence development are sort of in line with US thinking and goals for the peninsula. So these missiles would not be aimed at Japan at all,” he said.

“Anything that strengthens the US ally in the region, even if China’s not the target, won’t make Beijing happy.”

On Tuesday, North Korea fired a Hwasong-12 intermediate-range ballistic missile that flew over Japan for the first time in five years. Pyongyang’s latest provocation followed a series of tests last week as US Vice-President Kamala Harris visited Japan and South Korea, and prompted warnings for Japanese residents to take shelter.

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol has previously said the country’s defence system is intended to deal with threats from North Korea, and is not aimed at China or other countries.

In a speech on Saturday, he vowed to “dramatically strengthen” the country’s reconnaissance and strike capabilities to counter North Korea’s nuclear weapons under Seoul’s “three-axis system”.

The three-axis strategy aims to target North Korea with three platforms: the Kill Chain pre-emptive strike platform, the Korea Air and Missile Defence system, and the Korea Massive Punishment and Retaliation programme.

Davis said the Hyunmoo-5 served the goal of being able to “deeply bury” North Korean targets under its punishment and retaliation plan.

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Since the Korean war in the 1950s, North Korea is believed to have built more than 6,000 underground military facilities, including shelters and arms storage sites. Observers say Hyunmoo-5 missiles could destroy most of those facilities if they were armed with heavy warheads.

Saturday’s video of the Hyunmoo-5 missile was Seoul’s first demonstration of a cold-launch method, in which the missile was ignited after launch instead of being ignited on the launch pad like previous versions.

Cold launches allow for a missile to carry a heavier warhead, and to be launched from a submarine, according to Shin Jong-woo, a senior researcher at the Korea Defence and Security Forum, who was quoted in a Korea Times report.

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