A visit to Taiwan by US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi may lead to an unprecedented risk of conflict between Beijing’s People’s Liberation Army and American forces, Chinese defence analysts warned.
The military experts said Beijing – which has threatened to “take resolute and forceful measures” if Pelosi insists on going ahead with her Taiwan trip – would go all out to stop her landing on the island, deploying diplomatic, economic and even military means.
Mentioning the issue for the first time, the Chinese defence ministry said the PLA sees Pelosi’s planned visit as a move to “support Taiwan independence” and would not “turn a blind eye” to it.
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“As the No 3 leader of the US administration, if Pelosi insists on coming to Taiwan ... it will inevitably cause extremely serious damage to ties between the Chinese and US governments, as well as the two militaries, leading to further escalation of tensions in the Taiwan Strait,” ministry spokesman Tan Kefei said on Tuesday.
“The Chinese military will not turn a blind eye to it, and will respond by taking strong measures to thwart any external interference and ‘Taiwan independence’ secessionist attempts, to resolutely defend national sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Tan said.
Beijing considers self-ruled Taiwan to be a renegade province and has never renounced the use of force to bring it back into the fold, rather stepping up pressure in recent years with intensive naval drills and fighter jet sorties around it.
Tan’s strong remarks echoed warnings from the Chinese foreign ministry last week, when spokesman Zhao Lijian said the US will “bear all consequences” and face “forceful measures” from Beijing if Pelosi persisted with her Taiwan tour.
Beijing-based naval expert Li Jie highlighted the risk of actual armed conflict.
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“Pelosi’s plan to visit Taiwan is increasing the risk of military conflict between the PLA and the US military over the Taiwan issue, as today’s [mainland] China is so different from the one in the mid-1990s,” Li said, referring to the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis when Washington deployed two aircraft carriers strike groups to the region in a bid to stop the PLA from turning its missile tests into a real invasion of Taiwan.
“The American military claimed they might send aircraft carriers to escort Pelosi if necessary, but today’s PLA owns two active aircraft carriers, it’s too risky for either side to deploy the giant ships to the waterway.”
A narrowing of Beijing’s military technology gap with the US has made the Chinese leadership more aggressive and less tolerant of the provocations and challenges thrown by the Americans, Ni Lexiong, professor at the Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, said.
“Beijing has tremendous means to push Pelosi to give up her plan,” the political science expert said. “In terms of military options, for example, the PLA might announce a no-fly zone and restricted navigation zone for military exercises near the Taiwan Strait, forcing Pelosi’s aircraft to make a detour if she insists on visiting Taiwan.”
Ni said other military measures could include the possibility of “attacking the Pratas Islands”, the South China Sea islet group also known as the Dongsha and controlled by Taipei. The cluster is just around 300km (186 miles) from the PLA’s Southern Theatre Command, but more than 400km from Taiwan’s southernmost Kaohsiung naval base.
Zhou Chenming, a researcher from the Yuan Wang military science and technology think tank in Beijing, said the PLA felt it had “not been respected” by Washington in the past few months despite flagging the risks posed by such a visit.
“The PLA is very angry because of the feeling of disrespect from their American counterparts after months of efforts to try to stop Pelosi’s Taiwan trip,” Zhou said.
Pelosi earlier cancelled plans for a visit in April after testing positive for Covid-19.
As Pelosi’s visit could coincide with the PLA’s anniversary on August 1, the Chinese military is likely to organise military drills near Taiwan at the time, with more warships and aircraft deployed, a military source said.
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“The PLA may mobilise a certain number of warships and aircraft to patrol both the Taiwan Strait and [Taiwan’s] eastern coasts, because the US military might arrange for Pelosi to land on the island on a warship departing from the American naval base in [Japan’s] Okinawa,” the source said on condition of anonymity.
Ni, however, said military might is always the last step, and Beijing would prefer to use diplomatic means to convince the US to have Pelosi cancel her tour.
“For example, Beijing could play the Russia card, by selling something the US doesn’t like, as China still refuses to follow international sanctions over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine,” Ni added.
US President Joe Biden has himself cautioned against Pelosi undertaking the trip. The Pentagon had assessed “it is not a good idea right now”, Biden said last week, ahead of an upcoming telephone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping but later fell ill with Covid-19.
More from South China Morning Post:
- China has become more ‘aggressive and dangerous’ to US, and its allies says chair of Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley
- US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan signals Joe Biden has not changed Taiwan policy as president prepares for call with Xi Jinping
- Beijing warns US will ‘bear all consequences’ if House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visits Taiwan in August
- Military drills a sign of Beijing’s increasingly aggressive stance towards Taiwan, analysts say
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