Officials sort and fold ballots for 2019 elections at a General Elections Committee (KPU) warehouse at STT Mandala University in Bandung, West Java, on April 1. - Antara
JAKARTA (The Jakarta Post/Asia News Network): Party leaders looking to the 2024 presidential election have begun meeting with peers and erstwhile rivals to explore possible electoral alliances, but divergent ambitions and a wide-open field keep the future landscape unpredictable.
Gerindra Party chairman and presidential hopeful Prabowo Subianto met with NasDem Party leader Surya Paloh at the latter’s office in Jakarta on Wednesday (June 1) for their first official meeting since Surya expressed his opposition to Prabowo joining the pro-government coalition in 2019.
After a five-hour closed-door meeting, the leaders told the press they had seen eye to eye on prioritising national stability during the upcoming presidential race.
“Gerinda and NasDem have an understanding that we must maintain national stability. We invite [everyone] to build awareness of [...] a healthier political culture. Our respect for one another must be maintained.
Competition should not cause us to bring each other down,” Surya told reporters. But the two party leaders remained noncommittal on the possibility of forging an alliance.
“He has constituents; I have constituents. We are responsible to our own parties. Whatever happens, we are committed to protecting [the state ideology of] Pancasila to maintain the integrity of the nation. We are concerned about more than just the election," Prabowo told reporters.
Surya concurred. “Prabowo doesn't always smile at me,” he said. “But we both know we have the same good intentions. We want to dedicate ourselves [...] to the progress of the country.” Willy Aditya, a NasDem executive who was present at the meeting, said the leaders had not discussed the prospect of forming a coalition.
“They made an analogy of themselves as two alpha [personalities]. Fellow alphas must walk together; no one should be ahead or behind [...]. [They] already understand each other's territories,” Willy said on Wednesday.
He added that the possibility of more talks between the two leaders remained open.
Political analysts said that the dual “alpha” analogy indicated that the two leaders would not be likely to form a coalition for the 2024 election.
A. Khoirul Umam of the Institute for Democracy and Strategic Affairs (Indostrategic) noted that Prabowo and Surya had taken starkly different approaches to the presidential race, making it hard for them to find common ground.
“Surya [...] from the start has wanted to play the kingmaker, so he has resisted the idea of being locked in by parties who want to nominate certain presidential candidates,” Umam said.
“Meanwhile, Gerindra’s political strategy, seen from its communications, has an inclination to lock in parties so that it can present Prabowo as a presidential candidate.”
Analyst Yunarto Wijaya of pollster Charta Politika said the two parties would have a hard time finding middle ground if they formed a coalition.
“There seems to be no electoral incentive for NasDem if both parties nominate Prabowo as their presidential candidate. It would not be beneficial for NasDem to nominate a leader of another party as it would not result in the coattail effect,” Yunarto said.
Wednesday’s meeting, however, could facilitate future reconciliation once the 2024 presidential race is decided.
“On a practical level, the meeting could open the door to future power-sharing if, later, one of them would like to jump ship and lend their support to the winning presidential candidate,” Umam noted.
During the Idul Fitri holidays, Prabowo made a series of high-profile visits to prominent figures and pesantren (Islamic boarding schools) in Central and East Java, two regions that he lost during the 2014 and 2019 elections, further intensifying speculation that he would run again in 2024 – in what would be his fourth presidential bid.
Meanwhile, the Wednesday meeting was the third time in three months that Surya had welcomed party leaders to his office.
He received Golkar Party chairman Airlangga Hartanto and Agus Harimurthi Yudhoyono, the leader of the Democratic Party, the largest opposition party, in two different meetings in March. T
he possibility of forming a coalition was reportedly discussed at both. NasDem, which has hinted at nominating Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan as its presidential candidate, will hold a national congress in mid-June that will decide three potential candidates for the party’s ticket.
Earlier this month, the Golkar Party announced it had formed a coalition with the National Mandate Party (PAN) and the United Development Party (PPP) in what analysts see as part of preparations to endorse Golkar party chief Airlangga Hartarto as a presidential candidate. The coalition has invited other parties to join it.
Political analysts said that even though talk of coalition-building had been intensifying, the political landscape would remain fluid and unpredictable until next year, as parties competed in the absence of an incumbent seeking reelection.
“In an election where the incumbent cannot join the race, parties have a greater desire to nominate their own candidates,” said Yunarto of Charta Politika.
“It is unlikely that we will be able to see the pattern clearly in the coming months. Even though the political safari has started, we can still expect surprising moves from parties.”
