MANILA, May 7 (The Straits Times/ANN): In two days, more than 65 million Filipinos will cast their ballots in a historic election which is as much about the past as it is of the future.
"This is the most consequential election in contemporary Philippine history," said political analyst Richard Heydarian at the Polytechnic University of the Philippines.
Polls predict that Mr Ferdinand Marcos Jr, 64, will become the country's 17th president, 57 years after his father and namesake became the 10th president and went on to rule for more than 20 years, a reign marked by brutality and institutionalised kleptocracy.
That will complete the long-gestating comeback of the Marcoses, 36 years after a military-backed civilian revolt in 1986 forced them to flee the Philippines in shame.
"A Marcos win will be a repudiation of the (1986) People Power revolution. I think it will be the final erasure in the historical revisionist project of the Marcos camp," said Dr Jean Encinas-Franco, an associate professor at the University of the Philippines.
In a way, the outcome of the May 9 election may mean the disavowal of 1986.
Mr Marcos Jr is certainly framing it that way.
He believes that his election as president will mean that voters have finally come around to believing what his family has been saying all along: That they were victims of a great injustice, that what happened in 1986 was a mistake, and that it is time to go back to a period when the Philippines was prosperous, peaceful and ruled with an iron, but benevolent, fist.
Voter rage
How did it all come to this, and what lies ahead for the Philippines if Marcos Jr does win?
His stunning rise was not unexpected as it fed off on years-long, deep and widespread grievances among voters.
On the ground, there is a palpable sense of frustration, especially among the poorest of the poor - who ultimately will determine who wins and who loses come election day on Monday.
Many have lost their livelihoods or lost their homes, possibly to a land-grabbing scam, and seen their children drop out of school. Those who were fortunate enough to have kept a job would have been struggling, with hardly any change in their pay, for years and years.
They blame it all on those who made People Power happen.
"Nothing changed. The government is still corrupt. So why not vote for Marcos again? What do we have to lose?" said Ms Teresa Macalma, 54, who runs a roadside eatery in the resort city of Tagaytay, south of the capital Manila.
Her grievance: She believes a condominium developer, who has been paying off officials in City Hall, has been stealing bit-by-bit her family's sprawling ancestral farm land.
Mr Marcos Jr has taken advantage of the rage among the have-nots. A massive, unrelenting social media blitz, which includes historical distortions, revisionism and even outright lies, has been directed at his family's arch-enemy: the political forces aligned with the late president Corazon Aquino, who provided the fulcrum around which all anti-Marcos forces coalesced and then made the 1986 revolt possible.
Currently, that coalition is helmed by Mr Marcos Jr's top rival for the presidency, Vice-President Leni Robredo, 57.
It is not lost on historians that while his father squared off against a woman leading a pro-democracy movement, Mr Marcos Jr now faces another equally formidable woman propped up by the same movement.
Convenient alliances
So, what will happen if he becomes president?
Analysts believe that for all the nostalgia as well as praise that Mr Marcos Jr has heaped on his father's reign, there will be no return to strongman rule.
"Personally, I think they'll be more populist in the sense that if they win they'll be more co-optive than militaristic," said Dr Carmel Abao, an assistant professor at the Ateneo de Manila University.
For starters, Mr Marcos Jr does not have the same absolute rule over the civil service and military complex his father had.
He is also not a power unto himself, propped up by a separate coalition that can easily turn on him and end his reign prematurely if he proves recalcitrant or surrenders to the same power-hungry tendencies that ruined his father.
His running mate, Ms Sara Duterte-Carpio, the daughter of outgoing President Rodrigo Duterte, commands the loyalty of her father's still powerful base. She is, in fact, the reason for Mr Marcos Jr being so far ahead in the opinion polls.
Pundits say if it was not for her, he would be in a dead heat with Ms Robredo.
Headstrong and fiercely independent, Ms Duterte-Carpio, as vice-president, is unlikely to settle for the role of a spare tyre. She will likely insist on a ministerial position as she prepares for her own run for the presidency six years from now.
But, for now, many analysts believe she will serve as an insurance policy for her father.
She will ensure that a case of "crimes against humanity" against Mr Duterte for his bloody drug war before the International Criminal Court will not go far. She will also provide cover for her father over alleged graft cases involving some of his closest advisers.
Then, there is former president Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, 75, a kingmaker in her own right who will wield her influence through Congress.
She is expected to again win a seat in the House of Representatives, and then manoeuvre her way to the post of Speaker - which will give her considerable sway over who Mr Marcos Jr appoints to run his government, and over his government's budget.
There is also Mr Manny Villar, 72, the Philippines' wealthiest man with a fortune estimated by Forbes Magazine at more than US$8 billion (S$11.1 billion).
He used to be a senator and once ran for president. But he has been concentrating on his business empire, and has left politics to his wife, who is now a senator herself, and son, who is expected to win his own Senate seat.
Mr Villar will be there to ensure that Mr Marcos Jr's economic policies will line up with what he thinks will be best for his business interests, which are mostly in massive infrastructure and property development.
Furthermore, Ms Robredo, even if she loses, will not be a spent force. She has already galvanised a passionate, middle-class, youth-centred grassroots movement - the so-called pink wave - that can easily be mobilised again to thwart any attempt by Mr Marcos Jr to circumvent democratic institutions and processes.
Family first
Then, there are the interests of Mr Marcos Jr's own family.
Pundits expect his 62-year-old wife, Mrs Liza Araneta-Marcos, and sister, Senator Imee Marcos, 66, to be deeply involved in running his government, albeit in the shadows.
His wife, a lawyer, comes from one of the country's wealthiest families that saw their fortune grow exponentially under the senior Marcos' regime.
She will likely have a say on who her husband picks to run the pivotal Budget and Finance ministries, as well as all the other instruments of the government in charge of running the economy.
Ms Imee Marcos, meanwhile, will be in play to become Senate president to secure her brother's hold on Congress.
"Mr Marcos Jr and the political clans need to hold it together until the elections.
"However, these clans will eventually see infighting, given conflicting interests and struggle for resources. It will be interesting to see the kinds of compromises and who among the political clans will become dominant in the months to come, especially during the budget cycle review of Congress," said Dr Cleo Calimbahin, an associate professor at De La Salle University.
For all his grievances, Mr Marcos Jr has signalled that he is unlikely to be vindictive if he wins. He is, after all, campaigning on a "unity" platform.
He is expected to extend an olive branch to his foes, and they are expected to respond in kind, at least early into his term.
Dr Abao of Ateneo de Manila University said that Mr Marcos Jr, as president, would be "occupied with family matters, with getting back the family wealth, with clearing the family name, changing textbooks to present the family in a more desirable, rather than despicable, light".
"Governance under (Mr Marcos Jr) will be taken up by his inner circle and the political allies behind him," she said.
Ultimately, for all the call-back to what he perceives to be his father's glorious past, Mr Marcos Jr will not really be offering a radical way forward.
A majority of Filipinos are expected to vote for him on Monday, believing that he represents a repudiation of "politics as usual".
But as things stand, it appears as if "politics as usual" is the only thing on offer. - The Straits Times/ANN
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