Malaysia and Asean await the Biden effect on Asia

THE Joe Biden Administration has vowed to repair the United States' alliances and return the US to a "position of trusted leadership" among world democracies.

Under the previous administration, the US withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership grouping, the Paris accord on climate change and the Iran nuclear deal.

On those three fronts – the economic, environmental and the strategic – American isolationism that accumulated over four years cast a long shadow on the world. Many viewed that shadow as the American deficit in global affairs. The US does presently appear determined to move out of the shadow into a new international sunshine.

Malaysia, as a member of Asean, eagerly awaits the effects of America's return to the world, particularly Asia.

The Economist Intelligence Unit suggests how the new American policy would take shape. It said in February that there is a degree of continuity between the two administrations.

For example, Biden has embraced the Indo-Pacific strategy "aimed at combating Chinese influence that was developed under his predecessor". However, the unilateral approach adopted to dealing with the challenge from China has shifted to "one of closer co‑operation with bilateral partners and multilateral organisations".

Unfortunately, though, while the "US strategic objective is clear", "ambiguity surrounds supporting economic policies in Asia". This ambiguity reflects the new administration's "hesitance" to commit itself to free-trade agreements, which points to "a further similarity" with the previous administration.

That is an elegantly sober analysis of the current state of affairs. It not only articulates the reality of how America has returned to multilateralism to contain China's seemingly unstoppable rise but also how America is still unwilling to join free-trade pacts in order to institutionalise Washington's return to an increasingly Beijing-centric Asia.

In other words, multilateralism stops short of free trade. It is difficult to see how this continuing aversion to free trade – an ideal upon which the US built the edifice of its political and military power after World War II – could contribute possibly to the continuation of American leadership in this century.

Economics provides the bedrock of politics and strategy. Without the economic compass, political and strategic influence would remain hostage to the often unruly winds of the Pacific Ocean that bridge the US and Asia.

Where Malaysia and, by extension, Asean is concerned, South-East Asia is a core area of American interest. The area lies at the heart of the Indo-Pacific region which, as its name suggests, encompasses the geographical, economic and political territory mapped by the Indian and Pacific oceans.

The concept of the Indo-Pacific, promoted by the US, expands the strategic ambit of the previous term, the Asia-Pacific region, which left India out of the calculus.

However, it would be equally problematic to leave China out of the workings of the emerging Indo-Pacific constellation of powers. In spite of the misgivings that its actions in the South China Sea have created among its neighbours, China has legitimate interests in Asia and elsewhere that other nations do recognise. They do not fear the rise of China per se. They fear the consequences of the continued militarisation of the fruits of China's economic growth.

They would have had the same fear of the US had it been a rising power today seeking to emerge from the national humiliation to which imperialism and colonialism had subjected it to not too long ago.

China's Asian neighbours, themselves subject to colonialism, understand what makes China behave as it does against the backdrop of a long history interrupted by Western colonialism.

The best way for America to treat a rising China would be for the remaining superpower to enmesh itself in global multilateral institutions and free trade arrangements, much as China does, not to contain its rise but to give it a stake in multilateral norms and conventions in whose inevitable evolution America will continue to have an important say.

From the point of view of Malaysia in particular and Asean generally, a degree of dissonance is inevitable between a superpower and its nearest challenger at a time of power transition. That dissonance could lead to conflict, but it does not have to. It perhaps will not lead to conflict if trade – the antonym of war – underpins the multilateralism that works towards economic coopetition and the peaceful resolution of disputes.

The view from Asean is very much that the test of the Biden presidency will not lie in whether it is "tough" or "soft" on China. Those are meaningless words in international politics. What is "tough" at any point of time? What is "soft"? Who decides?

The real question is whether America can preserve its interests best in confrontation with or in collaboration with China. (It is the same question for China vis-a-vis America.) The inexorable answer is that collaboration promises much more for either side than confrontation does.

The trade war that the previous American administration launched on China hurt China (and many other nations) through the disruption of global supply chains much more than it benefited America or anyone else. President Biden must strongly demonstrate a commitment to part with the isolationism of his predecessor if the US is to retain and forge ahead with its leadership role.

From a Malaysian/Asean point of view, the return of America to Asia and other parts of the globe is a welcome development. However, South-East Asians would not like to be forced to choose between an America which they know and trust and a China whose rise they do not distrust but of which they have substantial expectations.

Is this asking for too much? We should hope not. While it might be in America's interests to have South-East Asia on its side against China, and in China's interests to have its neighbours on its side against America, South-East Asians have no desire to be a pawn in other nations' plans.

Malaysia's independent foreign policy dictates that it is the country's national interest which must be protected within the powerful interplay of global interests. That holds true of other Asean nations as well.

The hope is that the return to multilateralism in America will herald its debarkation to the realities of Asia. It is hoped that that would indeed be the true Biden effect.

FRANCIS XAVIER

Senior counsel and partner with Rajah and Tann, Singapore