War of decapitation by US and pinprick retaliation by Iran

FACTS don't lie but truth is the first casualty of war. When two or more sides start fighting, one of the first things they do is to lie about their true intentions.

US Senator William Fulbright, who was against the US involvement in the Vietnam War, was the first senator to understand this. Thus, to this very day, one of the most prestigious scholarships, on par with Rhodes and Truman, are the Fulbright Scholarships.

Many Malaysians have studied or visited the United States as Fulbright scholars. They stand for mutual understanding and peace.

The recent decapitation of the top leadership of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is indeed a risky and dangerous act of aggression by US President Donald Trump, who as the commander-in-chief, gave the Pentagon the green light to kill General Qassem Soleimani and his deputy, and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, deputy commander of Popular Mobilisation Forces, an Iran-backed militia.

Due to the popularity of Soleimani, Iran’s clerics and the Revolutionary Guard have vowed vengeance, and there will indeed be some mortars landing at the US embassy, also known as the Green Zone in Baghdad, or bases in Kirkuk in Iraq.

True enough, such tit-for-tat action has already begun.

But for those trying to figure out if this could be the start of another world war, they should be more careful in understanding the context.

To begin with, the united States has been watching Iran’s actions since the days of President Barack Obama.

Despite Iran supporting Syria President Bashar al-Assad, who allegedly launched not one but several chemical attacks against his own people, the United States under President Obama signed the Joint Comprehensive Points of Agreement (JCPOA) with Iran, the so-called nuclear deal.

The goal was to denuclearise Iran. To Iran’s credit, it adhered to the terms and conditions of the deal even after the United States unilaterally decided to withdraw in 2017, to the horror and angst of many, including its Nato allies.

Slighted and angered by the US withdrawal of JCPOA, which means US economic sanctions would continue indefinitely against Iran, President Hassan Rouhani and Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Hosseini Khamenei have tried to make sure that the United States pays for reneging on the agreement.

In the days and weeks ahead, the prices of crude oil will reflect the confusion and tension, which is why the price of oil per barrel will hover between US$68 and US$70 before dropping, and potentially could go up again.

Stock markets across the world have also seen sharp dives, albeit with the possibility of rebound because Iran so far has been limited in its retaliation.

To commentators in CNN, like Fareed Zakaria, what Trump did is the near equivalent of a “stupid fumble”. The United States is fumbling into yet another conflict.

But then again, this aggression has energised Trump's voter base too. And, with an impeachment trial hanging over his head, he had to push Americans into hyper-nationalism too. And the best way to do it was to challenge Iran head-on.

The fact of the matter is that both leaders in Iran and the United States will continue to use nationalism as a smokescreen for their own domestic purposes.

Just last month, Iranians demonstrated in large numbers against Tehran for its inability to hold down the cost of living. The Iranian administration lives in fear of being overthrown by its own people.

But now that Iran is engaged in a bellicose exchange with the United States, the demonstrators’ attention is on defending their country against the Western superpower.

Understanding this background is more important than trying to wonder if the United States and Iran are about to trigger a world war.

Still, there is always a possibility that this could escalate and become a world war. And in any war, as history has shown repeatedly, there will be no victors, only losers, no matter how one manages the narrative of it, post-war.

Dr Rais Hussin is Parti Pribumi Bersatu Malaysia strategist. The views expressed here are entirely the writer's own.