Party polls poser

WE will soon know the Registrar of Societies’ (ROS) decision on Umno’s amendments to the party’s Consti-tution.

According to Prime Minister and Umno vice-president Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob, the ROS has until Thursday to approve the party’s decision to allow internal polls to be held no more than six months after a general election.

On May 15, an Umno Special General Assembly unanimously approved a motion to amend its Constitution to allow the party to delay its polls.

If it is a yes from the ROS, then Umno polls will be held in six months after the 15th General Election (GE15). It means the current Umno leadership, in which the top two leaders – president Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi and deputy president Datuk Seri Mohamad Hasan – do not have a Cabinet position, will still be in power.

Ahmad Zahid as president of Umno and Barisan Nasional chairman, who is in the I-want-snap-polls cluster, still commands the party hierarchy with an iron fist. After all, the Umno ministers and GLC (government-linked corporation) chairmen who are in the I-don’t-want-snap-polls cluster will need Ahmad Zahid’s signature on the “surat watikah” (endorsement letter) to be party candidates in GE15.

If it is a no from the ROS, then Umno has to hold party polls by December this year. Those with no party positions or are at the vice-president level can challenge the two leaders for the president and deputy president posts.

There’s a possibility of a yes and no decision from the ROS: It could decide to accept the amendment but say that it can only be implemented after a new Umno leadership is elected. If that’s the decision, then Umno has to call for party polls before Dec 29 this year.

The mandate for the 2021-2023 term was up on June 30 last year, but the party’s supreme council decided, and the ROS agreed, to postpone the next election for 18 months. The term for office-bearers (some in the I-don’t-want-snap-polls cluster deemed as caretakers) was extended until Dec 28 this year.

If the ROS forces Umno to hold elections this year, will the I-want-snap-polls cluster escalate the timetable for GE15? They would prefer a general election comes before the party polls as they are then guaranteed to be in power during GE15. Otherwise, they could lose in party polls to leaders in the I-don’t-want-snap-polls cluster and not be able to contest in the general elections.

“Mat Hasan has publicly stated that he wants to contest the Rembau parliamentary seat.

“He is deputy president and Rembau Umno division chief, and he has the seniority to demand the seat from the incumbent, KJ,” explained an Umno insider.

He was referring to Mohamad Hasan, the assemblyman for Rantau, a state seat in the Rembau Parliament seat, and Health Minister Khairy Jamaluddin, who has been Rembau MP since 2008.

“KJ has to look for a seat – Port Dickson? Putrajaya? Tampin? – to make way for Mat Hasan. Or what KJ can hope for to defend his Rembau seat is an Umno poll in which Mat Hasan will be challenged as deputy president.”

From chats with some in the I-want-snap-polls cluster, it seems that KJ is an “enemy” as the Rembau MP is in the I-don’t-want-snap-polls cluster. Those in the I-want-snap-polls cluster have been sharpening their keris to “teach KJ a lesson”.

In the 2018 Umno polls, Khairy contested against Ahmad Zahid and Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah for the party president post. Ahmad Zahid won, replacing Datuk Seri Najib Razak in the post-GE14 Umno which had lost federal power.

My kupi kupi (coffee) chats with political contacts this week centred on who would be in which group if there was an Umno poll soon.

What position would KJ go for?

Will Ismail Sabri team up with vice-president and Rural Develop-ment Minister Datuk Seri Mahdzir Khalid for the president and deputy president posts, respectively?

Will Ahmad Zahid defend his post? If yes, who will be his running mate?

How about Defence Minister Hishamuddin Hussein, who has no national party position as he did not contest in the 2018 Umno polls? Is the Semborong MP going for the president or a deputy president post?

Some see Umno vice-president Datuk Seri Khaled Nordin, who is neither an MP nor a minister, as a dark horse for the deputy presidency.

Will Mat Hasan go for the president or a deputy president or vice-president post?

Different sources have different “inside information” on who will be in which group. The most intriguing inside information is that whoever Bossku (aka Najib) gives his blessings to will have a strong chance of winning.

And it seems Bossku has decided who to back. Jeng, jeng, jeng!

If the information on who he’s backing is credible, then it looks like there will be a snap general election before an Umno poll this year (if ROS decides not to allow the amendment to postpone party polls).

If the information is not credible, then the I-want-snap-polls cluster – mostly those not in the Cabinet or holding GLC chairmanships – will want to force GE15 soon. The popular date is around September or October.

Will Umno president Ahmad Zahid press the “sack button” on those who get in the way of a snap GE15 similarly to what the party did to Pasir Salak MP Datuk Seri Tajuddin Abdul Rahman, who was removed from the supreme council?

The keris has been sharpened in anticipation of the ROS’s big decision on Umno’s polls.