Stakes are high in these two polls

JOHOR BARU: Dispatch rider Mazwan Ali travelled almost 100km from Pontian to Pulai to attend a kenduri rakyat near his brother’s home in Pulai.

The 36-year-old Umno member was among the dozens of people who braved a heavy downpour to listen to Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, who was in town for a one-day working visit one day before nomination day for the Pulai and Simpang Jeram by-elections.

Mazwan said that the two by-elections will be interesting as Umno will have to work with Pakatan Harapan, especially DAP – staunch rivals that are now allies in the unity government pact.

“My family in Pulai has always voted Barisan. But they are now undecided. Anyway, campaigning has already started and maybe their hearts will soften over the next few days,” the father of two said.

That observation reflects one of the biggest factors – how Umno supporters will vote – that will determine who wins the Pulai and Simpang Jeram by-elections, two polls that appear inconsequential but which carry high stakes in the national political landscape.

Umno’s ally Pakatan is taking on Opposition coalition Perikatan Nasional in the two by-elections scheduled for Sept 9.

A victory in Pulai will mean that the unity government political pact will get to maintain its two-thirds majority in the Dewan Rakyat which is crucial to it’s plans to enact institutional reforms to combat corruption and improve good governance.

The unity government pact currently holds 148 out of 222 parliamentary seats.

Winning Pulai is also essential for Umno which had suffered severe defeats in the recently-concluded six state elections.

Political analysts have argued that Umno’s defeats in Kedah, Terengganu and Kelantan, where it was wiped out in all but one of its traditional seats, spell doom for the party.

So Umno’s ability to pull in the Malay vote for Pakatan’s candidates in Pulai and Simpang Jeram will be a signal of whether the party is still respected in Johor, its birth place and fortress.

The importance of these two polls was emphasised by Anwar during a high-tea event at Iskandar Puteri where the Pakatan chairman spoke to party leaders in the unity government pact.

All 26 Johor Umno division leaders were present with leaders from MCA and MIC of Barisan Nasional along with Pakatan component parties DAP, PKR and Amanah.

Anwar detailed the achievements of the unity government but also stressed the importance of racial harmony and good governance.

“The atmosphere was cordial among everyone and it was interesting to see Umno and DAP leaders sitting side by side and chatting away,” said Johor Umno information chief Datuk Md Jais Sarday.

“Anwar also addressed some sensitive issues including him being involved in the recent conversion ceremony of an Indian man to Islam.

“He stressed that the man did it willingly and had asked for him to carry it out,” said Jais, who described the session as being open and frank.

Malays make up 44.18% of Pulai’s 166,653 voters, while the community comprises 51.8% of the 40,488 voters in Simpang Jeram.

The late Datuk Seri Salahuddin Ayub, of Pakatan, had polled 33,174 and 8,749 votes to win in both Pulai and Simpang Jeram, respectively.

In theory, Pakatan should be able to retain both seats if it manages to combine the support of both Pakatan voters and that of Barisan.

This would give Pakatan 96,000 votes in Pulai and almost 15,000 votes in Simpang Jeram.

But grassroots Umno leaders caution that this is easier said than done as witnessed in Kedah, Terengganu and Kelantan, where party supporters silently voted for Perikatan or didn’t come out to vote at all.

Talk is rife that Umno’s message to its members is not to “kill Umno in Johor” by voting Perikatan and if they can’t stand Pakatan, to just stay home and not vote.

“After all these years of rivalry, it is not easy to campaign with Pakatan, especially with DAP members who have always been our rivals,” said one Umno leader who requested anonymity.

Realising this, Umno’s top leaders have been actively campaigning in the two seats since nomination day.

They include, president Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, Mentri Besar Datuk Onn Hafiz Ghazi and his predecessor Datuk Seri Hasni Mohammad.

Perikatan parties Bersatu and PAS, on the other hand, are trying to capitalise on its recent “green wave” of victories in the six states to make inroads into Johor.

In a recent ceramah, PAS president Tan Sri Abdul Hadi Awang attempted to drive a wedge between Umno and Pakatan by claiming that DAP was anti-Islam.

Johor-based political analyst Dr Mohd Akbal Abdullah said communal rhetoric might have worked in the six state elections but argued that Johor was different.

“The Bangsa Johor concept is supposed to reject extremism and promote communal harmony and respect religious diversity,” said Mohd Akbal of Universiti Tun Hussein Onn, which is in Batu Pahat.

Bread-and-butter issues such as the rising cost of living, better infrastructure, skills training programmes and more job creation seem to be the issues that are likely to influence voters in the two seats, he added.

The campaign for Pulai and Simpang Jeram is expected to heat up in the coming days as all parties go all out to win over young voters who make up more than half of the electorate in both seats.

While the Barisan-led state government or federal unity government is in no danger of collapsing due to the by-elections, the stakes are still high in this Umno fortress.