Battle for power in Sabah

SABAH’s 17th state election will take place within the next six months.

More than a dozen political parties – either in alliances or independently – are eyeing a stake in the 73-member elected State Legislative Assembly amid pundits predicting yet another hung election.

The political pact that put Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) and Sabah Barisan Nasional into power after toppling the Parti Warisan-Sabah Pakatan Harapan government in the September 2020 snap state elections, has since disintegrated.

GRS, once a key member of Perikatan Nasional, has realigned itself with Pakatan Harapan following Chief Minister Datuk Seri Hajiji Noor leading an exodus out of Bersatu in December 2022 to form local-based Parti Gagasan Rakyat Sabah (Gagasan Rakyat).

Its key partner, Sabah Barisan-Umno led by Datuk Seri Bung Moktar Radin pulled out support for Hajiji in January 2023 who abandoned Perikatan to back the new federal unity government under Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim in November 2022.

Hajiji out-manoeuvred Bung Moktar’s bid to take over the state government by forging a fresh coalition with Sabah Pakatan and grabbed defecting Sabah Umno assemblymen to keep his government afloat.

The post-GE15 events set a new political landscape in Sabah where all state parties with elected reps became part of the federal unity government.

But some, like Warisan, Sabah Barisan and Parti KDM, decided to sit on the opposition bench at state level.

Discussions among various parties and coalitions for fresh political pact alignments have intensified with the state election just months away.

Major local and national parties are exploring alliances to secure a decisive victory.

However, forming a cohesive pact remains a complex challenge because of competing interests and seat allocations.

On the table is a need to meet growing local sentiment for state-based parties to regain autonomous political rights without the presence of national parties, similar to the political landscape in neighbouring Sarawak.

On the other hand, the unity government led by Pakatan Harapan chairman Anwar wants an electoral framework that will reflect the political structure of the federal unity government, to ensure continued stability.

Anwar has made it clear to leaders about his hope for GRS-Pakatan-Barisan to form the core pact in the state election.

However, this proposed framework faces resistance due to internal political dynamics.

Several parties within the eight-party GRS coalition publicly advocate for GRS to contest independently.

On the other hand, the state chapter of Umno adamantly rejects a team up with GRS but is ready to team up with Pakatan as well as any other local party.

The majority of the 25 Sabah Umno divisions have informed their president Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi that they are not keen for a pact with GRS, whom Bung Moktar says played Umno out in their 2020 electoral pact.

Hajiji and Bung Moktar have been at loggerheads, with observers anticipating that any attempt by national Umno leaders to force Sabah Umno into a pact with GRS could trigger internal resistance and further rifts within Umno as well as ripple effects on GRS.

Despite some pushback from hardliners within GRS, Hajiji is ready to steer his state coalition to forge an electoral pact with Sabah Pakatan, which is now part of the state government.

However, Hajiji has indicated reluctance to work with Bung Moktar-led Sabah Barisan-Umno, instead favouring cooperation with friendlier Umno figures like Datuk Seri Abdul Rahman Dahlan, a strong advocate for Barisan-Umno to pact with GRS.

Warisan, led by former chief minister Datuk Seri Mohd Shafie Apdal, has remained outside electoral pact discussions.

Shafie appears to be positioning Warisan as an independent force as he pitches for state autonomy similar to a time when single multiracial parties like Berjaya (1976-85) and Parti Bersatu Sabah (1985-94) governed Sabah.

Warisan aims to appeal to a broad voter base – including Muslim and non-Muslim bumiputras, as well as urban and Chinese voters – without the baggage of having any national party affiliated in the state polls.

However, this strategy is risky, as Warisan would be competing against GRS’ well-oiled electoral machinery, and might have to face off with Pakatan and Barisan.

Political analysts believed Warisan’s independent approach could be advantageous, allowing it to freely criticise GRS on key issues ranging from lack of basic infrastructure to the alleged mining licence bribery scandal.

However, there are lingering suspicions that Warisan may be engaged in secret or quiet negotiations with Sabah Barisan or even certain GRS factions.

Shafie, who went separate ways with Pakatan in the 2022 general election but supported the unity government for its formation, has denied any formal pacts.

He maintains that Warisan’s only alliance is with the people, though he did not deny meeting other party leaders from time to time over a cup of coffee.

Sabah UiTM political analyst Rahezzal Shah said it was difficult at this point in time to see how the political alignments would shape up, as local courtships could be derailed by political dynamics between Barisan and Pakatan at federal level.

For over a year, he said, there had been talk of Sabah Barisan-Umno courtship with Warisan to face the coming election, but this has become improbable with national Umno seen to be against it.

“It raises a question on how truly autonomous Sabah Umno is as claimed by Bung Moktar and his allies within the party.

“With the election looming, Warisan has little option but to move ahead to scout for potential candidates and campaign funders in Barisan-Umno areas,” added Rahezzal.

“Another big question is, will GRS form a pact with Pakatan?

“The close relationship between Anwar and Zahid at national level will make it rather difficult for Sabah Umno and Sabah Pakatan to go against each other, if GRS refuses to work with Sabah Umno over bad blood between Bung Moktar and Hajiji.

“Could this spell the end for Bung Moktar as Sabah Umno chief in paving a way for a grand coalition between GRS and Sabah Pakatan along with Sabah Umno?

“Even if Hajiji, Anwar and Zahid agree to it, the likelihood of resistance from GRS components mainly Parti Bersatu Sabah (PBS), Sabah STAR and also Sabah Progressive Party (SAPP) and Umno causing a potentially bigger rift is plausible.

“A bigger coalition means fewer seats for everyone.

“Plus, there is growing demand from within GRS that they should contest all seats rather than forming a pact with peninsula-based national parties.

“Hajiji must tread carefully or else end up with a fractured GRS heading into a crucial state election,” observed Rahezzal.

However, Universiti Malaysia Sabah (UMS) Faculty of Social Sciences and Humanities Assoc Prof Dr Lee Kuok Tiung suspected that a change within Sabah Umno could push through the eventual Sabah Barisan-GRS-Sabah Pakatan team-up.

He said the GRS and Pakatan tie-up alone would not be complex as there would not be a need for too much seat haggling.

“Basically, there is not much problem for DAP to cooperate with GRS because traditionally they only contest six to eight seats and it is likely that they will ask to maintain the status quo.

“Sabah PKR and Upko, which currently only have two and one seat respectively, will have problems if they ask for more seats.

“The seats held by opponents can be divided between them but if they ask for seats held by GRS component parties, then it will be a problem,” he added.

For many political observers, electoral pacts do not ensure an agreement will be honoured.

As seen in previous elections, parties from coalitions have fielded their own candidates against the party chosen for a seat.

Furthermore, in the usually tough and heated negotiations, disagreements lead to opening certain seats free for all to contest.

The final battle lines might only shape up after the dissolution of the state assembly, but then again in the fluid Sabah political battleground, friends could be foes and vice-versa.

In the current 79-member Sabah assembly (including six nominated assemblymen), GRS has 42 seats and Sabah Pakatan has seven, with Sabah PAS, though in opposition at national level, is holding one nominated seat.

While Warisan has 14 seats, Sabah Umno has 13 seats including two suspended for supporting GRS, and KDM has two seats.