Going separate ways

After attacking Iran in June and while prosecuting genocide in Gaza, Israel attacked six countries in three days during the week. Last Tuesday, Israel struck Qatar in an attack on Hamas leaders who were there for ceasefire talks. — Reuters

EVEN as global turbulence upsets multiple regions, all signs point to yet greater upheaval.

No country knows this better than Israel, technically the closest ally of the US. Israel confirmed its chief perpetrator role with multiple attacks and war crimes whose collective prospect of escalation dwarfs Russia’s Ukraine incursion.

After attacking Iran in June and while prosecuting genocide in Gaza, Israel attacked six countries in three days during the week. Any other non-Western country would have earned a loud Western condemnation for its “unprovoked full-scale attacks.”

A small country like Israel can do much damage everywhere because its chief sponsor is the sole superpower. While it is described as a US ally, functionally the US is instead an ally of Israel.

Alliance relationships with a superior power are never equal because of obvious power differentials, except for the Israel-US alliance where the tail typically wags the dog. Trump has sanctioned, tariffed and condemned many countries including allies in Nato and elsewhere, but has only voiced some disapproval for Israeli war crimes.

In April, Trump’s “Liberation Day” declaration hit EU goods with a 20% tariff. Last Wednesday EU President Ursula von der Leyen declared Europe’s own Liberation Day in finally starting to chart its own course without undue reliance on the US.

She lashed out at Russia’s continuing war in Ukraine, which was predictable enough. The EU has been forced to be more attentive to Ukraine’s fortunes, now that the US leadership role in the Western alliance is officially being diminished in the war.

More significant, however, is the EU’s raft of measures to limit and marginalise relations with Israel. Since US bipartisan policy remains tied to Israel in a supporting role despite its egregious war crimes, even von der Leyen’s Europe now has the courage to act.

EU funding for Israeli government functions will be cut, its extremist ministers including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be sanctioned, and a fund for Gaza reconstruction will be established. No US politician in any party has dared suggest anything similar.

Israel has placed what was once unquestioned US global leadership in an untenable position. And the US is in no position to do anything about it.

Observers around the world, along with EU parliamentarians, find Europe finally waking up to some important global realities. Exactly how far these changes will go and how long they will last remain to be seen.

One area where European policy changes will now enter is improving economic relations with China. While the US trade war on China initially prompted the EU in safeguarding its own interests to reconsider any reflexive bandwagoning with Washington, Trump’s tariffs on Europe sealed its compelling sense of independence.

Now a Europe less tethered to the US is poised to go further: Trump 2.0 itself is preparing to work a trade deal with China to end their trade war. In the process, trade hawk advisors like China basher Peter Navarro have reportedly been excluded from vital deliberations in Washington.

With Trump suspending further pressure on China in hopes of achieving a trade deal with Beijing, the EU may see competition for key items like strategic metals from China. There is a prospective but delicate trade window opening for China in the US and European markets in the coming weeks and months.

US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth and his Chinese counterpart Dong Jun have spoken by phone, as have Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Foreign Minister Wang Yi. The conversations have been cordial in preparation for Trump’s meeting with Xi Jinping expected in the coming weeks.

Meanwhile US relations with India centred on trade will continue to be hamstrung by repeatedly incompetent handling of foreign relations. Like Navarro, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent imagine that India “will come round” and surrender to US trade demands under heavy tariff pressure.

They gloss over such recent developments as the new and revived camaraderie between Indian, Russian and Chinese leaders as no more than a show. Kindred spirits at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Tianjin were clearly on display, but they also have important policy and strategic implications.

Just as it was with Obama and Biden before him, Trump has continued to drive Russia closer to China. In addition, Trump 2.0 has so infuriated and humiliated India as to drive it closer to China as well.

The net result is a strengthening of the Brics partnership, whose leading members are also leading SCO members. An administration devoid of any sense of its own errors, or any sense at all, is only likely to compound such missteps.

Marching in lockstep with Israel has meant more war while alienating US partners, friends and allies diplomatically. The same self-isolating momentum may also occur on the trade front.

Bunn Nagara is Director and Senior Fellow at the Renaissance Strategic Research Institute, and Honorary Fellow at the Perak Academy. The views expressed here are solely the writer’s own.