Can Anthony Loke win in Chennah?

Among the most asked questions about the Negri Sembilan polls are who will win in the hot seats of Chennah and Linggi and, most curious of all, where is Nurul Izzah?

SEREMBAN town has turned into a sea of red.

Red flags and streams of red banners bearing the Pakatan Harapan logo are everywhere in a show of strength or, should we say, in defence of DAP’s bid to hold on to its 11 seats in the Negri Sembilan election.

The most aggressive display of flags is in the Lobak constituency held by Chew Seh Yong, 64, who is vying for a fourth term in the state assembly.

Even the steep road leading up to the Then Sze Temple is marked by flags. The temple which sits on Bukit Centipede played a part in the dramatic Chinese politics of the state at the turn of the century.

The seats in these urban parts are DAP strongholds so why the need for an all-out flag war and numerous billboards of the candidates.

“I have never seen so much red in Seremban. My guess is that they are not taking anything for granted after what happened in Johor,” said a Seremban lawyer.

The Chinese vernacular media has gone to town on the DAP seats, with full-page reports on what is being said and done.

The “8123” numerical slogan mooted by Chennah incumbent Anthony Loke was also prominently featured in the regional editions of the newspapers - “81” or August 1 is polling day and 23 denotes the seats Pakatan aims to win.

But the hottest topic in the election is Loke’s hold on his Chennah seat, located in the state’s northernmost corner. Of the 11 DAP seats, Chennah is hanging in the balance.

Loke’s political career could also be hanging on the outcome in Chennah.

Loke took the biggest risk of his career back in 2013 when he ventured into Chennah, which is a mixed seat, with almost equal numbers of Malays and Chinese voters. He was hailed as a champion when he won.

Technically speaking, Loke has the upper hand. He has served the area for three terms and his position as Transport Minister and DAP secretary-general makes him one of the most powerful Chinese figures in the country.

But the Malay mood has shifted and there is so much anti-DAP propaganda playing out on the Malay ground.

Trying to predict the outcome in Chennah which is 47% Malay, 44% Chinese, 7% Orang Asli and 2% India has become as hard as solving a Rubik's cube.

Moreover, his challenger John Siow Kong Choon, 37, comes across as tailor-made to be an assemblyman. Siow is the state MCA Youth chief and a municipal councillor in Jelebu.

He speaks such fluent Malay that those who do not know him might think he is Malay. He was born in the Titi new village in Chennah and has a business administration degree.

Siow has capitalised on his hometown boy status, saying that he will be available to the locals whereas Loke, 49, is wearing too many hats and is only visible during festivals.

“Loke is also my friend but John has served the area for 10 years and should be given the chance to do more,” said former state MCA chief Datuk Seri Dr King Lim Chin Fui.

The rivals have carried themselves like gentlemen. When the pair and their teams crossed paths during their walkabouts, Loke and Siow approached each other to shake hands in the middle of the road.

The other most talked-about seat is Linggi where caretaker Mentri Besar (MB) Datuk Seri Aminuddin Harun is in a three-cornered fight with Umno and Bersatu.

Many are puzzled why Tok Min, as he is known by, chose to start anew in Linggi. Despite being anointed the MB candidate, there are persistent rumours that he may not necessarily be the one because he is too closely associated with Datuk Seri Rafizi Ramli. He will be a hero if he wins but will go down as a fighter if he loses.

“I am not impressed that he presented a manifesto after two terms when he should be giving us his report card,” said Lim.

Another much asked question is: Where is Nurul Izzah Anwar? The PKR deputy president was also missing from the Sabah and Johor campaigns.

It is a mystery question which even PKR politicians cannot answer.

Newspaper columnist Jeff Ooi said the Chinese media’s focus on the DAP seats seems to ignore the fact that a simple majority of 19 seats is needed in the 36-seat state assembly.

“Even if DAP wins all 11 seats, they cannot form the government unless PKR and Parti Amanah also deliver,” said Ooi.

Pakatan managed to win only 17 seats - five by PKR and one by Amanah - in 2023 polls which was the golden period because Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim had just become Prime Minister a year earlier.

Can Pakatan do better now that the golden time has passed?

All this added to Anwar’s sense of betrayal over Umno’s electoral understanding with PAS.

DAP leader Hannah Yeoh has described the Umno-PAS ties as a Titanic that will eventually crash into an iceberg and sink.

But is another Titanic carrying Pakatan and Barisan also sailing towards its own iceberg?

Anwar made a heartfelt appeal for voters to prioritise political stability and restore his coalition’s place in the government.

But political stability will remain elusive unless the palace crisis is resolved and that will not be possible unless the next MB is acceptable to both sides of the palace dispute.

Tok Min is in the good books of the Yang di-Pertuan Besar but he is rejected by the Undang Yang Empat who are the co-Rulers under the Adat Perpatih system.

Surely Pakatan leaders know that the Undang Yang Empat or territorial chieftains have their own ecosystem of influence?

Insisting on Tok Min as the poster boy could result in alienating a segment of the Malay population.

DAP has pretty much locked up the Chinese base. Why then does the party still rely on Hew Kuan Yau aka Superman, who is known for his uncouth and chauvinistic oratory, to rally the Chinese base at their nightly ceramah?

It is a good thing that Malays cannot understand what he says or it will further alienate the very group that Pakatan needs to win over.