Who will be CM after Chow?

IT was quite the political storm that blew through Penang.

The uproar over the changes in DAP’s election line-up and accusations of an “emperor” controlling the choice of candidates dominated conversation in Penang the last few days.

But even as Penangites, especially the Chinese who form the bulk of DAP’s support, gossip about the man referred to as the “emperor”, they admit that they have no choice but to vote for the Pakatan Harapan.

The Chinese are terrified of PAS, who they see as a threat to their way of life.

As such, every single one of the 19 candidates introduced by secretary-general Anthony Loke earlier this week will win without too much difficulty on Aug 12.

DAP’s appeal among the Chinese, said a Penang lawyer, is still so solid that “even if you put up a banana tree, it will win”.

Yet, DAP was able to persuade the Chinese to embrace PAS in 2008 and the Teresa Teng song, “The Moon Reflects My Heart,” would be played during their campaigns.

“It was different then, the moon not only represented the PAS logo, it represented Nik Aziz,” said politician-turned-political columnist Jeff Ooi, referring to the influence of the late Kelantan Mentri Besar Tan Sri Nik Aziz Nik Mat.

All that is now history and there is concern that the ripples in DAP have overshadowed other more urgent issues affecting Pakatan in Penang.

The Indian rumblings within DAP could have an impact on seats like Prai and Bagan Dalam where Indian voters comprise some 36% and 25% of the electorate respectively.

There will be some turbulence especially in the Prai seat where former deputy chief minister Dr P. Ramasamy was dropped after three terms.

But the real danger of the Indian discontent is not in the DAP seats but in the marginal Malay seats where close fights are expected.

Every vote counts in these seats and less-than-complete Indian support could prove costly for Pakatan.

Pakatan’s survey in Penang suggests that it is likely to lose in four seats - Permatang Pasir, Permatang Berangan, Sungai Dua and Penaga, while another six seats are classified as grey.

A number of seats, even those that were classified as safe seats, will now need to be closely watched for changes in Indian sentiments.

One of the reasons why Pakatan is struggling in seats with a significant number of Malay voters is because Pakatan has been unable to produce a credible local Malay leader to lead in Penang.

The fact that there is a different Malay deputy chief minister from PKR every term says a lot.

None of them managed to shine while the party’s Penang chief Nurul Izzah Anwar is seen as less than committed to her role and purpose in the state.

Pakatan has yet to fully recover from the shock of losing Permatang Pauh last year and two of the three state seats in the constituency are classified as grey.

Pakatan/Umno certainly does not need the turbulence coming from DAP given its shaky hold over the Malay seats.

There has also been quite a bit of scrutiny of the DAP line-up given that this will be Chow Kon Yeow’s final term.

Who among the 19 DAP faces could take over after Chow?

Lim Guan Eng, slated again for Air Putih, is out of the running because of the state constitutional term limit on the chief minister's post, apart from the fact that he is facing corruption charges over the undersea tunnel scandal.

Public opinion has been quite critical of him contesting a state seat. The chatter out there is that he should not be clinging on to the state seat having been the chief minister before rising to the height of his career as the finance minister.

The only other person of experience is Wong Hon Wai, a former MP and state exco member who is now running in Paya Terubong. Wong is highly qualified with a degree in computer science, a masters in economic management and he is also a lawyer.

What he seems to be lacking is personality and people skills which are so important in politics.

But Lady Luck may be smiling on Wong now that he is up against a string of greenhorns and mediocre incumbents. His other major advantage is that he is aligned to Lim and that will help his advancement.

However, there is scepticism among as to whether Chow will actually be sworn in as chief minister after Aug 12.

“I will believe it when I see Chow standing before the TYT (Governor of Penang),” said a former Penang assemblyman.

The perceived attempt to replace Chow with DAP chairman Gobind Singh Deo has spawned doubts about the chief minister's post and there is also speculation that he will be pushed off mid-term.

Penang voters will stay up late on election night to watch how many seats Pakatan can hold onto and to see if Chow remains their chief minister.