War is over, but will truce hold?

AFTER 106 days of war, the United States and Iran have agreed to a ceasefire across all fronts, with a memorandum of understanding to be formally signed in Geneva, Switzerland, on Friday.

President Donald Trump has declared that the deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran was complete and he had authorised the toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz and the immediate removal of the US naval blockade.

Oil tankers and cargo ships have passed through the strait, marking the first implementation of the deal.

Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi confirmed that the text of the agreement has been finalised and would be signed on June 19, adding that all sanctions against Iran would be removed upon the signing.

While the finer details have not been released, the MOU appears to be focused on ending hostilities and the resumption of shipping. The United States and Iran would have 60 days to negotiate the future of Iran’s nuclear programme.

The talks were repeatedly stalled from the start, with both sides accusing each other of making unacceptable demands.

The breakthrough came as a surprise, as just days earlier Trump had vowed to hit Iran “VERY HARD” and seize Kharg Island along with other oil infrastructure.

Iran had also threatened to call off the talks on Saturday in response to Israel’s continuing strikes in Lebanon.

This led to Trump doing what he has not done since the start of the war – telling off Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and demanding a stop to its attacks.

Among the key points of the MOU is the immediate and permanent cessation of war on all fronts, including Lebanon.

It also entails the United States’ obligation not to interfere in Iran’s internal affairs and to respect its sovereignty and withdraw troops from the region.

Additionally, it subsumes the suspension of sanctions on the sale of oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives as well as full access of Iran to its financial resources.

The MOU also covers the provision of reconstruction plans worth at least US$300bil (RM1.214 trillion) for Iran and its allies.

It also provides for 60-day negotiations to reach a final agreement on nuclear issues, the complete lifting of all sanctions and acceptance of United Nations Security Council and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) resolutions.

As highlighted by Gharibabadi, the release of US$24bil (RM97.1bil) of frozen Iranian funds during the 60-day period of final negotiations would be conditional on the United States’ implementation of its commitments.

Would the truce last?

This is the question that most analysts are asking, especially given the rigid stance of Israel, the pesky fly in the ointment.

Israel Katz, the Jewish state’s defence minister, has declared that his soldiers would remain in the security zones in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza “to protect the border and Israeli settlements from fighters there.”

It is obvious that the peace deal could significantly undermine Netanyahu’s position if it limits Israel’s military options and reduces its influence in the region.

Domestic backlash is expected against his leadership, negatively impacting his election chances.

Former Israeli PM and opposition leader Naftali Bennett, who has repeatedly criticised Netanyahu for not being decisive against Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas, said the countdown to regime change in Iran would begin a change of government in Israel.

Both Iran and the United States have expressed significant caution over the ceasefire and have accepted that things could change in a flash.

But what were the factors for Trump to seek a truce, which is widely seen as a capitulation by the United States?

According to renowned political scientist and international relations scholar John Mearsheimer, Trump had already been desperate for an exit despite all his bravado.

Inflation in the United States rose to 4.2% in May, with about 97,000 people laid off as energy prices soared by 23.5%.

Trump’s approval slipped to a new low of 42.5%, with almost 70% of Americans disapproving of his economy while betting markets gave a 12% impeachment chance by December.

Mearsheimer said Iran was firmly in control of the Hormuz Strait, where 20% of global oil flows.

“Iran shut it down, reopened it, and shut it again. The US cannot fix this.”

Geography and the force of nature also seem to be on Iran’s side.

In summer, it would be suicidal to launch the much-touted ground invasion.

The heat – usually between 45°C and 50°C – can turn the battlefield into a living hell for US troops.

Besides dust storms and acute water shortages, the swelter can seriously restrict the movement of armoured vehicles and cripple aircraft avionics and sensitive equipment such as sensors and drones.

Ground operations become physiologically untenable under such constraints.

Oil, or its rapidly diminishing state of storage in the United States, is another significant determinant.

Cushing, Oklahoma, is a critical US energy hub, with its 78.4 million barrels in crude oil storage capacity accounting for more than 15% of America’s total reserve.

It is now running critically low with just 21.6 million barrels, or about just a day’s worth of average US consumption.

The oil market was about to hit a tipping point.

By all accounts, Iran appears to have won after almost four months of hostilities, although it has suffered the most deaths, with the numbers ranging from 1,800 to 7,600 out of the total estimated 8,423 to 17,757 killed.

The United States and Israel have failed to achieve much, including a change of regime.

Instead, Iran has damaged 20 US military sites based on satellite images and videos, suggesting the attacks were more extensive than publicly acknowledged.

Key facilities were destroyed across eight countries in the Middle East, causing millions of dollars of damage to advanced defence systems, refuelling aircraft and radars.

Iran has already survived the worst that the United States and Israel could inflict, emerging not only unscathed but also with its military and nuclear capabilities largely intact.

Media consultant M. Veera Pandiyan likes this quote by Niccolo Machiavelli: “Wars begin when you will, but they do not end when you please.”

The views expressed here are the writer’s own.