Palestine and pivoting international opinion

A very large part of Israel’s ‘strength’ arguably comes from the support of its international allies.

That support in turn is largely based on Western countries having a key ally (and some would say proxy) in the Middle East through which Western interests can be pursued and safeguarded.

The most relevant player here is of course the United States, where geopolitical interests and a strong internal Zionist lobby have worked to ensure almost unwavering support for Israel that goes back decades.

The key question here is if there is there a point where it will become too politically costly for American politicians to keep supporting Israel, as it moves more and more towards genocide against the Palestinians?

Support for Palestine has in the past never been strong enough to counterbalance the massive resources of the pro-Zionist lobby in America and the geopolitical benefits of a partnership with Israel.

What are usually referred to as the first two intifadas (uprisings) took place around 1987-1993, and 2000-2005, and one key difference between then and now is how the media works.

Even in 2005, everything we saw and heard was filtered through the mainstream media.

Today, there are no more filters; a child can get blown up in Gaza, and the whole world can see a video of it within an hour.

The truth of what Palestinians have endured for decades quite simply cannot be covered up and ‘spun’ into something else - the way it used to be.

This is not to say there is no more disinformation or false spins out there. In some ways, there’s even more.

But for the most part, it is easier to get an unfiltered picture of what’s going on directly from the source than it used to be and it is hard to overestimate the effect this has on public sentiment regarding this conflict.

Protests and sustained international public pressure have had an impact in the past. Think of the Vietnam War and apartheid in South Africa. Protest movements like the civil rights movement or the George Floyd protests have defined entire generations.

And all throughout America and the rest of the world, rallies in support of Palestine are erupting.

There are of course pro-Israeli rallies as well, but from what I’ve been able to see so far, they are much smaller in comparison.

We must not be so naive as to think these rallies alone will instantly push the ruling classes instantly into doing the right thin, but it does feel that this massive turn in the tides of support is starting to have a very real political effect.

Politicians tend to care about two things above all - money and getting re-elected.

The Zionist lobby probably has more money than ordinary people like you and I can possibly comprehend, but even all the money in the world has a tough time going up against the full force of public opinion.

Once American politicians fully understand how many votes this issue is costing them, we may start seeing a real shift in American foreign policy.

President Joe Biden’s position was not particularly strong going into this conflict, and we can already see his administration buckling under the pressure exerted by the mass protests.

We can also see just how difficult it is becoming to justify the sheer scale of violence visited by the Israeli government on Palestinian civilians.

In the United Kingdom, we are also seeing national politics being affected by international conflicts.

Most recently, former Home Minister Suella Braverman was dismissed from her post because of comments she had made, including accusing the Metropolitan Police of double standards in favour of pro-Palestinian protestors.

Many blamed those comments for emboldening right wing counter protestors on Armistice Day, with the police stating that those comments were a factor in attacks by those counter protestors on the police.

Keir Stammer, leader of the opposition Labour party, originally came out strongly in support of Israel, and has refused to call for a ceasefire.

As a result, he is facing internal revolt. A survey found that 26% of 2019 Labour voters felt he handled the Israel situation well, whereas 42% found he handled it badly.

One factor here is that there are large numbers of Muslim voters that Labour depends on - a constituency that could now overwhelmingly reject Stammer and his party.

Now, Stammer is facing the prospect of key leaders within the party breaking ranks with his refusal to call for a ceasefire, which could result in a crisis.

In some ways, diverging public sentiment on this issue could be seen as a battle between the young and the old, as we see that young people tend to be more pro-Palestine than their older counterparts.

In the past, it was easier for politicians to sway public opinion in whichever direction they wanted, especially when their hands were on all the levers of power.

But now, even America’s political leadership is starting to see how politically costly this blind support for Israel is starting to become.

It may also be experiencing a bit of an eye-opener in terms of just how far Israel is willing to take the violence.

In the most recent attacks on Al-Shifa hospital, there were some signs that Washington was not pleased with such brutality extending all the way into hospitals, probably because they knew it would result in sustained public outcry that would make them all look bad.

The Israeli-US partnership traditionally brought more benefits to America’s political leaders than harm, but as shouts of ‘genocide’ not only get louder but ring more and more true, and as the American government seems to realise that they have a lot less control (maybe none at all) over the Israeli dogs of war that have been let slip - the balance of those scales may be tipping.

NATHANIEL TAN is a strategic communications consultant. He can be reached at [e-mail]. The views expressed here are solely his own.