A political formula to neutralise hatemongering

PAS is going on a full-on onslaught against the new Pakatan Harapan government - fanning racist fires, aggressively painting DAP as anti-Islamic, and more from the usual bag of tricks.

If we track the timing of these attacks, one theory is that they began as soon as PAS started to feel that they would not be included in this "unity government".

It thus looks like PAS believes that its political priorities must be to defend the states it administers in the upcoming state elections, make inroads in the states it doesn’t, and set itself up for a good showing in the 16th General Election (GE16) against Pakatan.

In order to do this, it looks like PAS is reaching for the oldest play in the playbook - demonise any party allied to DAP as being anti-Malay and anti-Islam.

They know perfectly well how easily this sells, because they too were a "victim" of these attacks when they were part of the Pakatan Rakyat coalition after 2008.

If Pakatan Harapan is overly defensive on this front, it will likely play straight into PAS’ hands; is PAS inherently inclined to always try and lead Malaysians down this route of division?

It is tempting to think that the answer is yes, given that PAS is an Islamist party that is in many ways very naturally suited to this kind of rhetoric.

Again though, we cannot forget that PAS was once allied to DAP in the same coalition for some six or seven years and had cooperated with them in the past before that as well.

I have always argued that political strategy shapes ideological choices, rather than vice versa.

Right now, PAS chooses the ultra-Malay, ultra-Islamist narrative of division and fear, because they believe that is what most suits their political purposes.

It is important to note that I do not believe in the politics of appeasement. We should definitely not give in to bullies of any sort - political or otherwise.

That said, I do believe that in these early days of the new government, we have a unique opportunity to redefine Malaysia’s political landscape in a way that could have a profoundly positive impact on Malaysia’s social fabric.

In summary, I believe we can disincentivise PAS from choosing the path of racism and extremism.

The following proposal is predicated on the belief that PAS is aware that it will never unilaterally govern Malaysia.

They also likely fear that a Pakatan government at the federal level is an existential threat to PAS, which is likely their key motivation to embark on an all-out, scorched earth war against Pakatan.

In this scenario, we may have to gird ourselves for some of the most inflammatory political discourse Malaysia has ever seen.

I believe however, that Pakatan should consider an alternative scenario: one where PAS does not believe it is now facing an existential threat from Pakatan’s rise to power.

What I am suggesting is essentially a form of co-option and power sharing.

The gist of this strategy is to basically bring PAS into the fold, assure them of a relatively unchallenged power base in their corner of Malaysia and persuade them that there is enough to go around for everyone.

Again, it is important that we approach this in a way that is not a form of giving in to bullying, but a way to pre-empt the kind of all out political war that we have seen tear Malaysia apart for decades.

How would this work in practice?

The core of it would come down to electoral maths. Here are some key features:

The first step involves some kind of PAS representation in the federal government.

The most obvious would be the election of some PAS MPs as ministers. There may not be a huge pool of talent in the current crop of PAS MPs, but I imagine that in pursuit of the greater good, some kind of acceptable arrangement can be made.

Hopefully, PAS would not insist on too many ministries given the overall political context we are in. Offhand I might say, perhaps somewhere between 25% to 75% the number of ministries given to Umno.

Had PAS been less antagonistic towards Pakatan in the days between GE15 and Anwar Ibrahim’s swearing-in, the percentage may have been higher.

Besides ministries, there are of course any number of other government positions that might perhaps not be an unbearably bad match for some PAS leaders - assuming they are willing to truly commit to the spirit of cooperation, and not use these positions as a base to sabotage the government.

The second step may be even more important: a political pact with regards to state governments.

A comprehensive, detailed agreement cannot be described in the space of one article, but here are some of the potential broad strokes.

The most important would probably be something like a commitment from Pakatan to contest in less than half the state seats in Kelantan and Terengganu. This would essentially guarantee that PAS’ east coast power base would not be challenged.

A potential reciprocation from PAS would be limiting the amount of seats they would contest in some other states.

A detailed dive into the nitty gritty of which states, and how many seats per state would perhaps be too complex for one article, but the gist of it would be to make it something between "likely" and "guaranteed" that certain parties would take the lead in certain states.

We can examine a maximum and a minimum here.

In a "maximum" example (I must emphasise "example" - the exact configuration would of course be subject to detailed negotiations), we could imagine a split in Peninsular Malaysia along the lines of:

Pakatan running Selangor, Penang, and Perak.

Umno running Johor, Melaka, Negeri Sembilan, and Pahang.

PAS running Kelantan, Terengganu, Perlis, and Kedah.

In a "minimum" example, perhaps there can be a free-for-all competition as per usual in all the states except for:

Pakatan running Penang and Selangor.

Umno running Johor, Melaka, Negri Sembilan.

PAS running Kelantan, Terengganu, and Perlis.

As reciprocation, perhaps some the ruling party in a given state can even "allocate" a small number of seats to be opposition seats by not contesting in them.

With regards to GE16, perhaps the direction can be along the lines of maintaining a certain amount of status quo - maybe by something like imposing a small limit on the number of parliamentary seats contested by a given party in a given state, with a view towards maintaining a balance of power.

Something to note here is my personal belief that the exact number of seats a party has in a legislative assembly is sometimes a little less important than people think - especially outside the context of choosing a chief executive.

Representation is important; the size of that representation in parliament or a state assembly possibly slightly less so.

There is obviously a certain anti-democratic element to making "deals" like this.

Needless to say, we don’t want a political dynasty that is so strong that it can never be challenged. Such strength will certainly invite corruption.

In future articles, I hope to explore how we can pursue a robust system of checks and balances that is not centred on political opposition, but on other key democratic institutions.

For those who insist on a more traditional political opposition, I suppose there is always the non-PAS Perikatan Nasional parties.

At the present time, that is the best role I can think of for them, given what they do and do not bring to the table.

These suggestions above are predicated on the thinking that such a pact between Pakatan and PAS would disincentivise PAS from the zero-sum thinking that I believe is the ultimate, true political motivation for their pursuit of a racist, inflammatory, and divisive agenda.

I’m sure many will disagree, but I believe if you remove the political motivation, you will remove the hatemongering.

In theory, this will then allow politicians of every party to focus on fighting poverty, injustice, and corruption, instead of focusing on fighting each other.

I think looking at the political realities, and balancing what there is to lose vs what there is to gain, a pact along the lines of the one described above has good potential to be a win-win situation for both Pakatan and PAS.

Add the rakyat to that equation, and it could well be a win-win-win situation.

NATHANIEL TAN is a freelance strategic communications consultant who works with Projek #BangsaMalaysia. Twitter: @NatAsasi, Email: [e-mail].

All opinions expressed are the writer’s own.