The Art(icle) of The Deal

IT feels like the gamblers are going to be the ones having the most fun on Saturday (Nov 19), as we head into what feels like one of the most unpredictable elections in recent memory.

In 2018, Pakatan Harapan were probably the underdogs. In 2013, the “Ini Kalilah” excitement for Pakatan Rakyat was reaching a fever pitch. In 2008, nobody expected the “political tsunami”.

In 2022 though, it feels a bit like anyone’s game.

It’s entirely possible there’ll be a straight up clear winner, and a new prime minister will be sworn in on Sunday morning without fuss.

Conventional wisdom at present suggests that this is unlikely to be the case.

If conventional wisdom is correct, then we are headed for choppy political waters once again.

I imagine many Malaysians will groan at the prospect of yet more prolonged political chaos. I imagine I’ll be groaning a little, too.

On the other hand, in theory, a more positive interpretation is that this can be a learning opportunity for Malaysian politicians and Malaysian democracy.

In a hung Parliament, the first thing everyone will try is to cut a deal. It’s logical to expect that the beginnings of these deals are already being negotiated as we speak.

It is possible in this scenario, that the system will “reward” those politicians who are most successful at making deals.

This is theoretically not a bad thing. We should incentivise leaders to be adept at the art of negotiation, compromise, and cooperation. I have certainly always felt that these are key skills that are extremely valuable to any actors in a democracy.

All this is the theory of course. When we come to practice and how things are likely to play out this weekend, there are of course other things we should look for.

Let us hope that the negotiations will be based on finding common ground and democratic cooperation for the good of the rakyat, rather than the kinds of shenanigans that tend to be variations of money politics.

Looking at the potential dynamics of how these negotiations will pan out also offers some insight into how personality politics factor in, and how past actions affect future ones.

Ultimately, the important questions will boil down to: who is willing to work or compromise with who?

Let’s start with the presumptive kingmakers in GE15 - Sabah and Sarawak.

The defining feature of Sabah’s 25 parliamentary seats is likely to be the lack of clear favourites. Sabah politics in 2022 suggests that we cannot predict a clear winner or majority, and that the seats will be spread out more among competing parties, rather than result in a single bloc for the state.

Sarawak and its 31 seats are likely a different matter. Here, it seems like Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) has a much more solid grip on power, and pundits seem to predict that they will dominate these elections and be a more solid bargaining bloc for the state.

The parties that form GPS were basically once part of Barisan Nasional, but are no longer formally part of the coalition.

Given the extremely fluid nature of Malaysian politics today, and the unpredictability of GE15, I wouldn’t presume any absolute certainty regarding who GPS will support for PM.

If the final numbers are such that there is only one coalition with sufficient numbers to form the government together with GPS, then I suppose GPS’ choices will be more limited.

If there is more than one coalition that GPS can potentially combine with in order to form the government, then their bargaining power will of course be extremely strong - making them the ultimate kingmaker for GE15.

Of course, we must factor in the obvious fact that in Sarawak, GPS runs against Pakatan parties, but not against Barisan parties. A post-GE alliance between GPS and Pakatan is thus perhaps not impossible, but it would be more politically awkward, compared to an alliance with their old friends in Barisan.

Coming back to the peninsula, let’s look at the three main coalitions again - Barisan, Perikatan Nasional, and Pakatan.

We cannot conclusively say that any combination of the two above would guarantee a majority in Parliament (again, GE15 seems too unpredictable to make such claims), but conventional wisdom suggests that this assertion is more likely to be true than not.

There have also been some polls that suggest that for either Barisan or Perikatan to be in government, they would have to enter into another alliance with one another.

Let’s look at some of the key leaders that would be involved in any sort of deal between the coalitions: Datuk Seri Ismail Sabri Yaakob, Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi, Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin, and Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim.

For Barisan, even an outright victory might not guarantee who the PM would be, as there are at least two main contenders. There is probably less contention who Perikatan’s or Pakatan’s candidate for PM will be.

The next question is: who would be willing to work with whom?

In answering this, history comes into play.

Muhyiddin and Ismail Sabri were once allies, but the former may see the latter as a traitor who usurped his throne.

Speaking of traitors and usurpers, perhaps that is how Anwar thinks of Muhyiddin, given how the Sheraton Move played out. And even if Anwar doesn’t, his supporters likely do.

A long, long time ago, Anwar and Ahmad Zahid were fast friends and allies, back in Anwar’s Umno days. How strong has that friendship remained?

In the early days of the campaign, a thought occurred to me: Maybe any candidate for PM who demonstrated enough deal-making ability to name a Cabinet even before the elections might project an election-winning image of being the candidate who can bring much yearned for stability to Malaysian politics.

This may be so, but when I started thinking of the potential combinations this would require, I started getting a headache.

I’m a little more familiar with Pakatan, so perhaps we can explore one such example from that starting point.

While Perikatan’s “betrayal” of Pakatan is certainly fresh in their minds, Pakatan’s enmity with Barisan goes much further back than with Perikatan. Parties like DAP would also probably have a tougher time justifying an alliance with Umno than it would with Perikatan (though at this rate, let’s say nothing is impossible).

I could imagine Anwar working together with Muhyiddin. But then it occurred to me that this may also involve Anwar working together with people like Datuk Seri Azmin Ali.

I wouldn’t presume to speak for others, but I personally could (barely) stomach the first combination; but not the second. If enough people felt similarly, this might sink the possibility of a Pakatan-Perikatan cooperation (unless, say, Muhyiddin decided on the crowd pleasing move of dumping Azmin).

I think if you go through the many, many possible combinations and iterations that are possible leading up to GE15, similar problems occur. After all the interminable backstabbing, intrigue, and betrayal, there’s always someone who just can’t bear working with someone else - causing multiple impossibilities.

Of course, I imagine that most politicians feel it’s not entirely energy efficient to speculate too much, or analyse each and every combination right now. They probably prefer to see where the chips fall first, and take it from there. That’s reasonable.

For the rest of us, we may end up with a simple outcome; but we should probably brace ourselves for a bit of a rollercoaster. And there’s no telling how long this one might drag out.

> The views expressed here are entirely the writer’s own.