ROME, Aug 31 (Reuters) - In a country famed for political instability, Giorgia Meloni is poised to lead Italy's longest-lasting government since World War Two, overtaking a record of 1,412 consecutive days set by Silvio Berlusconi in 2005.
Meloni, who has tempered her populist instincts with pragmatism since taking power in October 2022, plans a rally on Friday, September 4 to celebrate the milestone, framing the durability of her coalition as one of its crowning achievements.
After cycling through 68 governments in 80 years, Italy has proved much steadier during a period of global conflict than France, which has had five prime ministers since the autumn of 2022, while Britain has got through four.
But just as Italy has shaken off its reputation for volatility, opinion polls suggest that the 2027 parliamentary elections could usher in a more fragmented and potentially less stable political landscape.
"There is a genuine risk that we could return to the worst kind of a splintered parliament next time around," said Roberto D'Alimonte, a professor of Italian politics at Rome's Luiss university.
While Berlusconi's single-term record is about to be eclipsed, he will remain the longest-serving Italian prime minister overall, with a tenure of about nine years over four terms between 1994 and 2011.
BUDGET DISCIPLINE
Worried about the prospect of renewed political turbulence, coalition allies are quick to tout the dividends of four years of uninterrupted rule.
Deputy Foreign Minister Edmondo Cirielli, of Meloni's Brothers of Italy party, said the government had kept deficits and debt under control, while adding 1.2 million workers to the jobs market, pushing unemployment to under 6%.
"The record figures on employment and unemployment are indisputable," he told Reuters.
Analysts broadly agree that Meloni's strongest achievement has been restoring confidence in Italy's shaky public finances, blighted by a hefty debt mountain.
Lorenzo Codogno, a former chief economist at the Treasury and now head of LC Macro Advisors, said the cabinet had convinced investors it was committed to budget discipline and had curtailed costly policies of past administrations, notably the "Superbonus" home renovation scheme.
"In terms of fiscal responsibility, I think the government has done a decent job. In terms of promoting growth and reforming the economy, not much has been done," he said.
Little effort was made to shake up an inefficient public administration, the health service and education system, while all the government's institutional reforms, including handing more powers to the prime minister, have floundered.
"Part of the reason Meloni has been able to stay in power for four years is that she did not try to change much or upset voters," said Lorenzo Pregliasco, head of YouTrend pollster.
"This is perhaps the most sobering lesson we can draw from this period."
LOSING TRUMP
While ducking ambitious change, Meloni focused on law and order, boosting police powers and cracking down on irregular immigration — a key electoral pledge — cutting the number of new arrivals to 66,316 last year from 157,651 in 2023.
"There has been the paradigm shift imposed by Giorgia Meloni in the management of illegal immigration," Francesco Filini, the head of Brothers of Italy's policy programme, told Reuters, saying much of Europe was now looking to emulate her.
Although she has forged good relations with many European leaders, Meloni's standing abroad has been bruised by the collapse of her once-close ties with Donald Trump after the U.S. president accused her in April of lacking courage and letting the United States down in its war with Iran.
The diplomatic setback, which destroyed any pretence that Meloni could serve as a bridge between Europe and Washington, came within weeks of a stinging domestic defeat, when Italians rejected her flagship judicial reform in a referendum.
The loss punctured the aura of invincibility that had surrounded Meloni's coalition, and while her party remains the most popular in Italy, the standing of her main allies — most notably the far-right League — has dropped steadily.
With time running out, the government has embarked on one last-gasp legislative push, seeking to redraw the electoral law by introducing a system that would give a majority bonus to any bloc winning more than 42% of the vote.
Critics say the change is designed to strengthen the conservative bloc's chances of staying in power. Meloni says it is aimed at providing renewed stability, whoever wins.
NEW PARTY DISRUPTS OUTLOOK
However, the political landscape has changed since the law was devised, thanks to the emergence of a new far-right party led by an ex-general, Roberto Vannacci, who has tapped into anxieties over immigration, security and cultural change with language that is markedly blunter than Meloni's.
A poll published by BiDiMedia on August 26 put the coalition partners on just 38.5%, while the broad centre-left camp, which is deeply divided over foreign policy and prone to relentless infighting, is hovering close to the vital 42% threshold.
Support for Vannacci has surged to 8%, suggesting he could win it for Meloni, if she agreed to bring him into her alliance.
That would be a risky move which might alienate moderate voters and alarm EU allies concerned by Vannacci's extremism. Alternatively, she could hope for an inconclusive vote and seek a post-election pact with Vannacci to give her a working majority.
Either way, the path to another stable government appears narrower than before. The opposition is disunited, while Vannacci's rise risks turning a previously disciplined conservative alliance into a more fractious bloc.
"The markets have liked stability and got used to it, but this is Italy, it won't last for ever," said Codogno.
(Reporting by Crispian Balmer; Editing by Sharon Singleton)
