by Habtamu Worku
ADDIS ABABA, May 21 (Xinhua) -- As Africa endures wide-ranging socio-economic effects from the Middle East conflict and recurring global uncertainties, experts have underlined an urgent need to build local capabilities and robust intra-continental trade for long-term resilience.
MIDDLE EAST CRISIS BITES
Several members of the UN High-level Advisory Board on Economic and Social Affairs told Xinhua that rising inflation and disrupted investment flows threaten to roll back years of development progress across the continent.
Danny Sriskandarajah, chief executive of the New Economics Foundation, said that energy and food price inflation, as the immediate impacts of the conflict, will hit the most vulnerable African countries hardest.
"This is going to have disastrous impacts in terms of humanitarian need in some of the poorest parts of the continent where food is already way too expensive," he warned.
According to Sriskandarajah, if the conflict-driven disruptions persist in the coming months, fertilizer shortages will significantly reduce agricultural production in Africa, affecting the continent's long-term food supply.
He said that the disruption is especially frustrating given that 11 of the world's 20 fastest-growing economies are in Africa, and that the conflict hinders the positive growth trajectory.
Elizabeth Sidiropoulos, chief executive of the South African Institute of International Affairs, cited a decline in investment inflows into Africa from the Gulf countries as a critical long-term impact.
Noting that Gulf countries have in recent years helped many African countries diversify their investment portfolios, she said that when official development assistance is shrinking and Western partners are adding new conditions, the absence of investment capital from the Gulf countries is particularly problematic for African economies.
She further noted that with roughly six million Africans working across the Gulf region, the conflict is set to disrupt remittances, further compounding existing economic pressures.
Parfait Eloundou-Enyegue, professor of global development at the Brooks School of Public Policy at Cornell University, raised concerns over the timing of the conflict as "strategically devastating" for Africa.
"In many countries, people are entering the most difficult season from the standpoint of food access," he said, noting that the rising costs of oil-derived products as a result of the conflict are increasingly forcing families to substitute away from basic necessities.
LONG-TERM RESILIENCE MATTERS
The experts underscored the urgent need for Africa to build local capabilities and foster long-term resilience to move away from external dependency.
"Building resilience is not something that you can do overnight," Sidiropoulos said, noting that with three back-to-back crises since 2020, African countries must urgently implement long-discussed continental priorities, including the African Continental Free Trade Area.
Eloundou-Enyegue advocated for reimagining Africa's agriculture sector. "Building adaptation and resilience is of critical importance. African countries really should take these warnings to heart and build an agriculture sector that is more sovereign and less dependent," he said.
Sriskandarajah said that the ongoing Middle East crisis constrains the decades-long economic development of Africa, in which the continent has mainly relied on external financing, aid flows, and global supply chains to power its development ambitions.
African countries must now focus on building intra-African trade and internal resilience as a continental priority, he noted, calling on policymakers to strategically build on the continent's future assets by tapping into the young population, critical mineral resources, and its potential as a global breadbasket and solar power factory.
CHINA'S ZERO-TARIFF POLICY HELPS
Against the backdrop of these uncertainties, some experts have described China's recent decision to grant zero-tariff treatment to products from 53 African countries that maintain diplomatic relations with it as a positive development.
"At a time when the other superpower is raising tariffs and rethinking new conditionalities, you have China offering tariff-free access to its market," Sidiropoulos said, adding that the move creates opportunities for various African products, such as South African wine and other agricultural produce.
Sriskandarajah called on African exporters to give priority to the quality of their exports through targeted value addition so as to truly benefit from the zero-tariff treatment.
"For the continent to really benefit from China's zero-tariff policy, it has to be about exporting high-value-added goods and services to an important market like China. This will make the biggest difference in the long term," he said.
