BUDAPEST, April 9 (Reuters) - Viktor Orban, uniquely endorsed by both U.S. President Donald Trump and the Kremlin, could lose his 16-year iron grip on power on Sunday, opinion polls indicate, in an election many Hungarians believe will decide their country's fate in Europe.
Orban, the European Union's longest-serving prime minister, has led Hungary since 2010, entrenching his power by curbing independent media and democratic rights and building an "illiberal democracy" that has earned him fans on Europe's far right and in Trump's Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement.
However, three years of economic stagnation and soaring living costs, along with the enrichment of oligarchs close to the government, have angered voters.
Orban's campaign has also been ruffled by press reports that his government has colluded with Moscow.
A former Orban loyalist, Peter Magyar, has successfully tapped into Hungarians' discontent and his centre-right Tisza party now comfortably leads most polls.
But political analysts also caution that undecided voters, a redrawing of the electoral map in favour of Orban's Fidesz and a high proportion of ethnic Hungarians in neighbouring countries - who mostly back the ruling party - create a mood of uncertainty. They say anything from a Tisza supermajority - able to change the constitution - to a Fidesz majority remains possible.
'MOMENTOUS' ELECTION
The stakes could not be higher for the Central European nation of 9.6 million people and for the continent.
"This is one of the most momentous elections in Europe and for Europe in many years," said Gregoire Roos, director of the Europe, Russia and Eurasia Programmes at Chatham House.
"In Moscow, Hungary has been seen as a precious trouble-making interlocutor within the EU — maintaining energy ties... and adopting, by far, the toughest tone vis-a-vis Ukraine than any other EU country. In the United States, Hungary has drawn attention as a laboratory of sovereigntist politics."
The Trump administration's public support for Orban was crowned this week with a visit by U.S. Vice President JD Vance who attacked what he called "disgraceful" EU interference in the vote. A European Commission spokesperson said elections were "the sole choice of the citizens".
Moscow was quick to follow. On Wednesday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said "many forces in Europe, many forces in Brussels, would not like Orban to win the elections again".
Hungary, which has criticised EU sanctions on Moscow, remains heavily reliant on Russian oil and gas. Citing a dispute with Kyiv over a war-damaged oil pipeline, Orban, 62, has blocked an EU loan to Ukraine agreed in December, the latest of his many conflicts with Brussels.
CONTRASTING VISIONS
Tisza leader Magyar, 45, has pledged to crack down on corruption, unlock billions of euros of frozen EU funds and tax the wealthiest, while reforming Hungary's crumbling healthcare.
He told Reuters the election was about whether Hungary can cement its place as a European nation and revive its economy, or drift further into the authoritarian camp.
"Just a few days and we will see a change of regime," Magyar told a rally in the town of Baja on Wednesday, promising to bridge political divisions among Hungarians.
"This is a very last chance... to prevent our country being a Russian puppet state... Let's not allow Fidesz... to lead Hungary out of the EU."
Orban says he wants to reform the EU from within and not leave the bloc. He has framed this election as a stark choice between "war or peace", saying his opponents would drag Hungary into the war raging in Ukraine. Tisza denies the accusation.
"This election is about Hungary's future. The choice is clear: dependence and decline -- or sovereignty, strength, and peace," Orban said on Tuesday.
The far-right Our Homeland party hopes to win enough support to become a "kingmaker," possibly opening a way for Orban to stay in power.
If Tisza wins, unwinding the legal and institutional changes that Orban has implemented with a constitutional majority will be a daunting task for a new government if it has a simple majority in the 199-seat parliament, said Mario Bikarski, Senior Europe Analyst at risk intelligence company Verisk Maplecroft.
This could lead to "an environment of persistent legislative blockade and policy uncertainty", he said.
However, investors are focusing for now on the potential positives of a Tisza win.
"An end to the Orban regime would provide a major boost to the Hungarian economy," Berenberg chief economist Holger Schmieding said in a note.
"It would remove a key obstacle to closer European cooperation... and pave the way for tougher sanctions against Russia."
(Writing by Krisztina Than, editing by Justyna Pawlak and Gareth Jones)
