HOUSTON, Feb. 11 (Xinhua) -- The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Tuesday projected that OPEC+ production cuts will keep global oil prices stable through early 2025, with a decline anticipated later in the year as supply rises.
According to the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) report, Brent crude is forecast to average 74 U.S. dollars per barrel in 2025 before falling to 66 dollars per barrel in 2026 as global oil inventories expand.
Global oil production is projected to surge by 1.9 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2025 and 1.6 million b/d in 2026, primarily driven by higher output from non-OPEC+ countries and the easing of production cuts.
The report does not expect significant effects from January sanctions on Russia's oil and shipping sectors.
Regarding U.S. energy trends, distillate fuel oil demand is expected to grow by 4 percent in 2025, supported by economic growth, while gasoline consumption remains flat, as fuel efficiency improvements counterbalance increased driving.
The Henry Hub spot price of natural gas is forecast to average 3.80 dollars per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2025, a 21 percent hike from previous estimates, and is projected to reach 4.20 dollars per MMBtu in 2026 due to stronger demand and inventory withdrawals, according to the report.
U.S. power sector output is expected to grow by 2 percent in 2025 and 1 percent in 2026, marking the first three consecutive years of growth since 2005-07.
Solar energy's share of total electricity generation is expected to surge from 5 percent in 2024 to 8 percent in 2026, while the share of natural gas is forecast to decline from 43 percent in 2024 to 39 percent in 2026 due to rising fuel costs.
Macroeconomic assumptions in this forecast were finalized ahead of recent tariff actions by President Donald Trump's administration, said the report, noting that adjustments may follow as U.S. trade policies evolve.
