PETALING JAYA: While Barisan Nasional and Perikatan Nasional leaders may have struck a seat sharing arrangement for the Melaka polls, there is no guarantee that their grassroots will follow the script, say analysts.
Universiti Sains Malaysia political analyst Prof Datuk Dr Sivamurugan Pandian said leaders could agree on seat-sharing, but grassroots voters might not toe the line.
“The real test is whether Umno and PAS supporters are willing to cross party lines, especially if PAS gets fewer seats.
“The bigger question is whether political deals among leaders can translate into votes on the ground,” he said.
Sivamurugan said the former Perikatan votes would likely be split between PAS, Bersatu and abstentions.
“PAS may retain the conservative Malay base, but without the old Perikatan structure, both parties risk losing electoral reach,” he said, adding that young voters prioritise jobs, cost of living and credible candidates over party slogans.
“Turnout could exceed 2021, but it is not guaranteed. Mobilisation, not social media noise, will determine the outcome,” he said.
Sivamurugan named Tanjung Bidara, Sungai Udang, Serkam, Pengkalan Batu and Duyong as seats worth watching.
He said any loss of seats for Barisan despite its understanding with PAS would expose weaknesses in its vote-transfer strategy, while few gains for PAS would expose the limits of the former Perikatan vote bank.
“And Pakatan Harapan failing to expand its support would raise questions about its state-level appeal,” Sivamurugan added.
However, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia political analyst Dr Mazlan Ali said PAS voters were typically highly loyal and followed leadership directives closely.
“Consequently, they are willing to vote for Barisan, regardless of any discontent within PAS over seat allocations,” he said.
Mazlan said the Perikatan vote would be divided among PAS, Bersatu and potentially Wawasan.
He said recent surveys suggested integrity concerns, including controversies surrounding Tabung Haji, Datuk Seri Najib Razak’s donations and UiTM Holdings’ financial losses, resonated strongly among young voters, fence-sitters and the out-of-state electorate, potentially causing a major voting shift.
Mazlan said seats with narrow margins, such as Bukit Katil, Duyong and Pengkalan Batu, would likely capture the interest of observers.
Barisan will contest 21 of the state’s 28 seats and leave the other seven to PAS and its allies, after the two sides fought each other in the 2021 state election.
Under the arrangement, MCA has two of Barisan’s 21 seats, down from the seven it contested in 2021, while Umno has 18 and MIC one.
Nomination day will take place this Saturday, leading up to polling on Nov 14.
