PETALING JAYA: New political configurations that are expected to emerge in the Melaka election could reshape the polls, but their impact will hinge on whether they consolidate support or further divide the votes, say analysts.
With several possible arrangements being floated, analysts said the contest could take a different shape from the 2021 election, when Barisan Nasional swept 21 of the 28 seats.
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Universiti Malaya political analyst Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub said three main scenarios could emerge – cooperation between Barisan and Perikatan Nasional, a “Pakatan Harapan Plus” electoral understanding, or parties contesting separately.
“The main issue is whether the opposition vote will be consolidated or divided,” he said.
Tawfik said a Barisan-Perikatan arrangement could consolidate much of the Malay vote and put the alliance in a strong position, although seat negotiations might prove difficult.
Barisan wants to defend all 21 seats it won in 2021, while Perikatan and other parties have their own demands, he said.
A Pakatan Plus arrangement, particularly one involving Bersatu, could reduce vote-splitting and make several mixed and marginal constituencies more competitive, he said.
However, Tawfik said such an arrangement would require clarity over seat allocation, leadership and a common political narrative.
Should the parties go their separate ways, he said widespread three- or four-cornered contests could emerge.
“In that situation, Barisan would probably gain the greatest advantage because its opponents would divide the anti-Barisan vote,” he said.
Tawfik cautioned that Barisan could not rely solely on its previous landslide, with voter turnout, cost-of-living concerns, candidate selection and public assessment of the state administration potentially affecting marginal seats.
Universiti Sains Malaysia political analyst Prof Datuk Dr Sivamurugan Pandian said several configurations remained possible, including Barisan-Perikatan or Barisan-Pakatan cooperation, a Pakatan-Bersatu-Muda arrangement, or multi-cornered contests.
“The final arrangement will depend on seat negotiations, leadership decisions and the parties’ strategic interests,” he said.
Sivamurugan said whichever configuration emerged, its effectiveness would also depend on grassroots acceptance and the candidates fielded.
“National political narratives alone may not be sufficient.
“Voters will also assess the credibility of candidates, the state government’s performance and the stability of any proposed cooperation,” he said.
Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Dr Azmi Hassan expects cooperation between Barisan and Perikatan to continue, while negotiations between Pakatan and Bersatu were also likely to be finalised.
He said Bersatu needed the support of a larger coalition such as Pakatan, particularly following its experiences in the Johor and Negri Sembilan elections.
However, Azmi said Umno’s strength in Melaka meant any grouping seeking to challenge it would face a difficult contest.
“Umno in Melaka is very strong, quite similar to Johor and stronger than Negri Sembilan,” he said.
Azmi also said developments involving Barisan and Pakatan in Negri Sembilan could spill over into the Melaka campaign and become part of the political narrative during the election.
