MELAKA: Political coalitions can no longer count on Felda settlements as a guaranteed vote bank as their younger generation is being far more open to alternatives, say analysts.
Universiti Sains Malaysia political sociologist Prof Datuk Dr Sivamurugan Pandian is of the view that loyalty is increasingly conditional among Felda voters, shaped by personalities, economic expectations and political credibility.
He also said while Barisan Nasional and Perikatan Nasional had forged an election collaboration, “friendship” among party leaders does not necessarily erase old grassroots rivalries or local concerns.
There are five Felda settlements in Melaka, all of which are located in four state constituencies – Machap Jaya, Asahan, Bemban and Rim.
Sivamurugan said the Bemban constituency illustrates how local factors could complicate party calculations.
Perikatan won the Felda area of Ayer Kangkong by 180 votes in 2021, accounting for more than half of its overall 328-vote majority in the seat.
Its candidate, Dr Mohd Yadzil Yaakub, then with Bersatu, is now defending the seat for Perikatan with Barisan’s support and faces Bersatu’s Muhammad Rabaie Ab Hamid.
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia’s Assoc Prof Dr Mazlan Ali said that while historical ties to former prime minister Tun Abdul Razak Hussein keep older Felda settlers loyal to Umno, the younger generation is increasingly open to political alternatives.
He expects more than 70% of Felda votes in the upcoming polls to go to Barisan and Perikatan, although votes retained by Bersatu could indirectly benefit Pakatan because of the informal alignment between the two.
Mazlan said Pakatan could nevertheless make inroads among younger settlers through the proposed amendment to the Land (Group Settlement Areas) Act 1960, or Act 530, which would allow settlers’ children to build homes on their parents’ lots.
Analysts also said that whether Perikatan supporters in Felda areas will back Barisan candidates could determine the success of the two coalitions’ cooperation in Melaka on Saturday.
The question is significant as Barisan and Perikatan, then rivals, together won about four in every five votes in the state’s Felda settlements in 2021, an analysis by The Star of Election Commission scoresheets shows.
Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Dr Azmi Hassan expects Perikatan’s Felda votes to largely transfer to Barisan.
He said Felda voters, who are overwhelmingly Malay, were comfortable with the Umno-PAS cooperation and would not “feel guilty” about supporting an MCA candidate because it was linked to “Malay unity”.
Universiti Malaya political analyst Prof Datuk Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi said the real test is whether Perikatan supporters in Felda settlements are prepared to mark the ballot paper for a candidate from a party they previously opposed.
He said this would be especially relevant in Machap Jaya, where Barisan won by a 938-vote majority in 2021 while Perikatan’s candidate secured 1,202 votes.
This time, Perikatan is backing Barisan’s Datuk Ngwe Hee Sem of MCA, who faces Pakatan Harapan’s Datuk Ginie Lim and Bersama’s Prasanth Kumar Brakasam.
There are three Felda settlements in the Machap Jaya constituency – Hutan Percha, Solok Menggong and Kemuning – and their votes constitute 17% or 1,366 votes out of 7,996.
