PETALING JAYA: The Barisan Nasional-Perikatan Nasional formula that delivered a landslide win in Negri Sembilan could prove significant in the 16th General Election (GE16), as the two coalitions seek to consolidate support and challenge Pakatan Harapan in key constituencies, say analysts.
Universiti Sains Malaysia political analyst Prof Datuk Dr Sivamurugan Pandian said the biggest takeaway from the state polls was the changing dynamics among Malay voters, with Barisan and Perikatan making gains while Pakatan faced challenges in retaining its prior electoral advantage.
“Pakatan still enjoys strong support among sections of the non-Malay electorate, but it cannot assume that this will automatically translate into voter turnout at GE16,” he said when contacted.
However, Sivamurugan cautioned against describing Barisan’s victories as a “national blue wave”, noting that GE16 would involve different dynamics, particularly in urban and mixed constituencies.
“The real test is whether Barisan and Perikatan can sustain this cooperation beyond the state elections,” he said.
Similarly, Universiti Malaya socio-political analyst Prof Datuk Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi said Barisan had shown it remained a formidable electoral force when backed by its traditional machinery, recognisable local candidates and a clear coalition arrangement.
“This was an endorsement of a clearer political arrangement centred on stability, Malay-Muslim cooperation and strong constituency-level machinery,” he said.
He added that the result had strengthened Barisan’s position within the Unity Government.
“But the balance of influence within the federal partnership has shifted further in Barisan’s favour,” he said.
On the so-called “blue wave”, Prof Awang Azman said while there was momentum following Barisan’s victories in Johor and Negri Sembilan, it remained premature to describe it as a nationwide trend.
“Johor was principally a Barisan wave where it won 48 of the 56 seats and with Perikatan wiped out. Negri Sembilan was different because Barisan and Perikatan coordinated their seats effectively.
“This is better described as a Barisan-led blue wave reinforced by selective cooperation with Perikatan rather than an equal surge for every party associated with the arrangement.
“For now, the results show a developing trend, but GE16 will involve parliamentary constituencies, national issues and different patterns of tactical voting,” he said.
Prof Awang Azman said the result dealt a setback to Pakatan, both electorally and in terms of public perception, with the defeats of former mentri besar Datuk Seri Aminuddin Harun and DAP secretary-general Anthony Loke carrying symbolic significance.
He said Pakatan’s main weakness was now more apparent in Malay-majority, semi-rural and mixed constituencies, where its messages on governance, reform and federal-state cooperation struggled to overcome concerns over identity, economic pressures, local leadership and the appeal of a clearer Barisan-Perikatan arrangement.
However, he said Pakatan had not collapsed, noting that preliminary statewide figures showed it secured about 40.2% of the popular vote, higher than any individual coalition.
“But its support was concentrated in fewer urban seats,” he said.
Prof Awang Azman said Pakatan would need to renew its economic narrative, strengthen engagement with Malay and younger voters, as well as field more locally rooted candidates.
Universiti Malaya political analyst Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub said the biggest takeaway from Negri Sembilan was that the coordination between Barisan and Perikatan could significantly alter the national electoral equation.
“By avoiding direct contests in most seats and consolidating Malay support, Barisan and Perikatan secured 25 of the 36 seats, up from a combined 19 seats in 2023, while Pakatan fell from 17 to 11,” he said.
He said the outcome would likely influence political strategies of all parties ahead of GE16, with Barisan now aware that selective cooperation with Perikatan could help it compete in Malay-majority constituencies without necessarily forming a formal national coalition.
However, Tawfik said the momentum would depend on whether Barisan and Perikatan could resolve future disputes over seat allocations, leadership and government positions.
