Barisan-Perikatan partnership has the edge in 23 Malay-majority seats
SEREMBAN: More than 850,000 voters in Negri Sembilan are heading to the polls today to elect a new state government, following a fierce two-week campaign that drew heavyweights from across the country.
Today’s snap polls, held in less than three years, will also be a defining test for Malaysia’s changing political alliances.
The main battle for control of the 36-seat state legislative assembly is expected to be between Pakatan Harapan and the Barisan Nasional-Perikatan Nasional combo, although Bersatu can play a spoiler role in certain constituencies.
Pakatan is contesting all seats, while Barisan is fielding candidates in 25 and its election ally Perikatan in the remaining 11 seats.
Bersatu, contesting solo and vying for 24 seats, is using its own logo.
The other contenders are Parti Sosialis Malaysia, Parti Orang Asli Malaysia and Berjasa, which will field one candidate each.
There are four independent candidates.
All eyes will be on the outcome of the strategic seat-sharing partnership between Barisan and Perikatan, with leaders from both sides having hinted that a victorious outing could lead to a broader extension of their cooperation on the national stage.
Universiti Sains Malaysia political analyst Prof Datuk Sivamurugan Pandian said the Johor election result created a momentum, but “Negri Sembilan is not Johor”.
He described Negri Sembilan’s electorate as more fragmented, with deeper Pakatan incumbency and different Malay, Chinese and Indian voting patterns.
For now, the blue wave is “more convincing as a political narrative and mobilisation tool” than proof that votes would move automatically, Prof Sivamurugan said.
“The real test is whether Barisan can turn momentum into gains in the marginal seats.”
He said a defeat would weigh more heavily on Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim than Johor did, as Pakatan had governed Negri Sembilan for two terms and Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Aminuddin Harun is the incumbent defending his record.
Malay voters make up more than half of the voters in 22 constituencies, while the Chinese are the majority in 10.
Overall, Malays make up about 57.2% of the electorate followed by Chinese (25.3%) and Indians (14.9%).
Among the key battlefields are Chennah, where state DAP chief and incumbent Anthony Loke will be challenged by Barisan’s Siow Kong Choon, and Sikamat, where Pakatan’s Nor Azman Mohamad is in a three-cornered battle against Bersatu information chief Datuk Tun Faisal Ismail Aziz and Perikatan’s Datuk Razali Abu Samah.
Nor Azman is the political secretary of the caretaker Mentri Besar.
Aminuddin, who held the Sikamat seat since 2008, will be facing an uphill task in Linggi, where he is taking on Barisan incumbent Datuk Mohd Faizal Ramli and Bersatu’s Datuk Zamri Said.
Klawang is another seat that will see a tight contest with Pakatan’s incumbent Datuk Bakri Sawir being challenged by Perikatan’s Danni Rais and Bersatu’s Adib Musa.
Political observers believe almost all seats in the Malay belt such as Pertang, Sungai Lui, Serting, Palong, Juasseh, Seri Menanti, Senaling, Johol, Paroi, Gemas and Gemencheh are expected to go to Barisan-Perikatan.
Those with majority Chinese voters such as Lobak, Bahau, Bukit Kepayang, Mambau, Lukut, Seremban Jaya and Mambau are expected to remain with Pakatan.
Barisan, Pakatan and Bersatu will be locked in three-cornered fights in 12 of the 36 seats while Pakatan, Perikatan Nasional and Bersatu will square off in eight seats.
Nilai and Sri Tanjung will see five-cornered fights while Rahang and Jeram Padang will see four-cornered contests.
On Tuesday, 14,995 out of 16,467 eligible voters, comprising army and police personnel as well as their spouses, cast their ballots as early voters. This represented a 91.06% turnout rate, surpassing the Election Commission’s target of 90%.
The fortnight of intense campaigning was marked by a sharp clash over local concerns and governance issues.
Political parties had also urged voters to use the polls as a referendum to reject backdoor politics and politicians who used racial sentiments to win support.
The increase in cost of living and infrastructure also shared the spotlight with a broader, national narrative.
Towards the end of the campaign period, public discourse was heavily dominated by the declassification of the Royal Commission of Inquiry report into Tabung Haji, which some leaders used to trade barbs over alleged irregularities and Malay-Muslim welfare.
The election campaign reached a fever pitch as Prime Minister Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Zahid Hamidi launched a multi-front offensive to lock down diverse voter blocks in the last few days of campaigning.
Moving with exhausting speed, the two leaders traversed key battlegrounds campaigning for their parties.
While Anwar, who is also Pakatan chairman, pitched federal economic stability, the state government’s achievements and anti-corruption measures, Ahmad Zahid, fresh off a commanding Barisan victory in Johor polls, sought to carry the “blue wave” momentum into new territories under the Malay-Muslim agenda.
Universiti Malaya political analyst Datuk Awang Azman Awang Pawi said Anwar’s pitch to keep Negri Sembilan aligned with Putrajaya no longer settled the contest after two terms of Pakatan Harapan.
“The argument retains some value, but it is no longer decisive,” he said, adding that voters are now judging Pakatan on delivery.
Awang Azman said federal access is no longer Pakatan’s to claim alone, with Barisan in the same government and its chairman Ahmad Zahid serving as Deputy Prime Minister.
Awang Azman also said the Johor results could not be reproduced in Negri Sembilan as the latter state was more ethnically mixed and competitive than the Barisan stronghold.
“Nevertheless, the transferable element is not the exact number of seats, but the political psychology generated by the result,” he said, pointing to Barisan’s win of 48 seats in the Johor state polls.
Awang Azman said if Pakatan lost the state, it would not threaten Anwar’s parliamentary majority.
“But politically, it would be a serious setback.
“Losing a state governed by Pakatan for two terms, so soon after being heavily defeated by Barisan in Johor, would suggest a broader pattern rather than an isolated local result,” he added.
In the 2023 state polls, Barisan and Pakatan had contested the election as a team under the unity government banner.
Together, they won 31 of the 36 state seats, with the remaining five going to Perikatan Nasional.
Barisan contested 17 seats and won 14 while Pakatan bagged 17 of the 19 seats they fielded their candidates in.
MCA and MIC did not contest the election.
