SEREMBAN: A stronger-than-expected Malay-Islam political wave, coupled with effective vote transfers between Barisan Nasional and Perikatan Nasional is set to hand the two coalitions a majority in the Negri Sembilan state election, according to Ilham Centre.
In its pre-election analysis released on Friday (July 31), the independent research firm said identity politics had become the dominant factor influencing Malay voters, eclipsing issues such as governance, development and the state government's performance.
"Voters are making their choices based on perceptions of who is better able to defend religion, the Malays and Malay political power," it said.
Ilham added that the narrative was no longer driven solely by Perikatan, but had evolved into a shared message embraced by both Barisan and Perikatan supporters, resulting in a more united Malay voting bloc.
It said the cooperation had enabled more effective vote transfers between the two parties, with about 92% of Perikatan supporters backing Barisan candidates where Barisan contested, while about 75% of Barisan supporters switched their votes to Perikatan candidates where required.
The report estimated that Pakatan Harapan secured only about 18% support among Malay voters, describing this as a major electoral disadvantage in Malay-majority constituencies.
It also argued that Pakatan failed to counter the identity-based narrative effectively, saying its campaign focusing on Negri Sembilan Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Aminuddin Harun's administration and governance record "failed to capture voters' imagination".
Ilham said Pakatan's later attempts to capitalise on Kedah Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Muhammad Sanusi Md Nor's controversial remarks and the Royal Commission of Inquiry (RCI) on Tabung Haji also failed to significantly shift Malay voter sentiment.
The report also pointed to signs of softer support among Chinese voters, saying backing for Pakatan was "no longer automatic" but driven more by a lack of credible alternatives than strong confidence in the coalition.
It attributed this to dissatisfaction over issues such as tax policies, subsidy rationalisation, e-invoicing and the pace of institutional reforms.
Among Indian voters, Ilham said support for Pakatan had also weakened over concerns including enforcement against overloaded vehicles, temple-related issues and what was perceived as an insensitive approach to community concerns.
Although Aminuddin maintained an approval rating of about 75%, Ilham said his popularity did not translate into broader support for Pakatan.
It said his move from Sikamat to Linggi had forced him to focus on defending his own seat, limiting his ability to campaign aggressively across the state.
Based on its field study, Ilham projected the Barisan-Perikatan alliance to win about 22 of the 36 state seats, while Pakatan was expected to secure at least nine seats.
It identified Chennah, Linggi, Nilai, Repah and Temiang as the five most difficult seats to predict, adding that victories in several of them could give Barisan-Perikatan a two-thirds majority in the state assembly.
