PETALING JAYA: Barisan Nasional is on course for another win in Johor, according to pollsters and analysts as the campaign enters its final week.
What remains to be seen is whether the coalition can keep its two-thirds majority of 40 seats in the 56-seat state assembly when Johoreans vote on July 11.
Nusantara Academy for Strategic Research senior fellow Prof Datuk Dr Azmi Hassan expects a decisive victory, given the ground Barisan has covered in the campaign so far.
"They are very active. They are everywhere and the machinery is confident," said Azmi, who is also a voter in Perling.
Azmi said Barisan was likely to secure a two-thirds majority as Parti Bersama could split Pakatan Harapan votes, while Perikatan Nasional had been weakened by PAS' refusal to work with Bersatu in the state polls.
"More than 40 seats – maybe 42 to 43 – an extra two to three seats this time," he said.
He added that the accuracy of any survey depended on its sample size and the questions asked.
"In this case, the question is straightforward – who will we vote for on July 11. So there is no chance of manipulating," he said.
In a statement on Thursday (July 2), election analyst Dr Ong Kian Ming said it was almost a foregone conclusion that Barisan would retain power – the only question was by how many seats.
The margin of victory, he said, would shape the Negri Sembilan polls on Aug 1 and could affect the timing of the 16th General Election.
The Taylor's University adjunct professor ran three scenarios based on 2022 General Election voting patterns. He said in the most likely outcome, Barisan took 53 of the 56 seats, leaving Pakatan with just three.
Even in his most generous scenario for Pakatan, Barisan still won 39 seats, one more than it needs for a two-thirds majority.
A week into the campaign, Ong put the odds of a Barisan landslide at above 60% and the chances of a Perikatan surge below 10% after the "divorce" between PAS and Bersatu.
Pakatan, he said, has given voters little reason to switch.
"Pakatan does not have a cohesive campaign narrative other than attacking the popular Johor Mentri Besar Datuk Onn Hafiz Ghazi," he said.
He added that the coalition has yet to name a mentri besar candidate or launch its manifesto and many of its top leaders are not contesting.
Ong said Pakatan had "created more problems for itself" during the campaign, citing Nga Kor Ming's remarks that he would quit the Cabinet if a big Barisan win led to Datuk Seri Najib Razak's release from jail and Marina Ibrahim's social media post alleging that a senior DAP leader had privately asked her to prepare for the release.
A dominant Barisan showing, including MCA winning more seats than DAP, would have "positive spillover effects" in Negeri Sembilan and could "possibly expedite the dissolution of parliament later in 2026", he said.
His projections line up with a Vodus Research survey of 1,303 registered Johor voters released a day earlier, which put Barisan on 36% of the likely vote against Pakatan's 26% and Perikatan's 15%.
Barisan led in 20 constituencies, 17 of them by safe margins, but 31 seats remain in play – 14 closely fought between Barisan and Pakatan and 17 too close to call.
Only 69% of voters were certain of their choice, meaning nearly one in three could still change their minds.
"In closely contested constituencies, even relatively small shifts among soft and non-disclosing voters could still reshape the final seat map," said Vodus Research founder Dr Kelvin Goh.
Onn Hafiz was the most-liked leader in the survey at 58% favourability, while cost of living topped voter concerns across party lines.
Barisan swept 40 of Johor's 56 seats in the 2022 state polls with 43.2% of the vote, regaining the two-thirds majority it lost in 2018.
