PETALING JAYA: Bersatu has long relied on PAS to compete in Malay-majority seats in Johor, depending on the grassroots machinery and support base its former ally brought to Perikatan Nasional.
With the two now estranged, analysts say the loss of that ground network could prove decisive in Bersatu’s ability to hold the five constituencies it inherited from PAS.
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Assoc Prof Dr Awang Azman Awang Pawi of Universiti Malaya and Prof Datuk Dr Sivamurugan Pandian of Universiti Sains Malaysia said PAS votes would not automatically transfer to Bersatu and that even small shifts could determine close contests.
In a best-case scenario, they said Bersatu might retain about half of the former Perikatan support.
However, in tight races, a loss of just 10% to 15% of voters through abstention or vote switching could change the outcome.
“PAS machinery does not just persuade voters. It identifies supporters, organises local programmes, manages polling district operations and ensures supporters actually turn out,” Awang Azman said.
Although both parties are using the Perikatan logo in the Johor polls, PAS has made it clear that it would only campaign for its own candidates.
Both analysts identified Bukit Pasir and Serom as the most vulnerable seats, where the Perikatan candidates lost by 198 and 699 votes respectively in 2022.
Awang Azman said Tenggaroh would test whether PAS’ sizeable vote share could transfer to Bersatu, while Serom and Bukit Pasir would show whether near-miss victories could be turned into wins without PAS support.
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Sivamurugan said in these constituencies, even a modest erosion of PAS supporters could be enough to change the outcome.
He added that Tenggaroh remains a key seat to watch given PAS’ strong presence there, while Bukit Pasir was particularly sensitive where every percentage point could prove decisive.
Senggarang and Kemelah, where Perikatan finished third previously, would also indicate whether past support is a solid base or a temporary product of PAS-Bersatu cooperation, he said.
The shared Perikatan logo offers Bersatu some continuity, Sivamurugan said, but also risks confusing voters faced with a single symbol but separate campaign machines.
“The logo can preserve brand recognition but it cannot replace organisational unity,” he said.
Sivamurugan added that PAS might also struggle to rely on Bersatu voters in seats it now contests such as Endau and Kahang.
“The effectiveness of the seat swap will ultimately depend on how well local party machinery, campaign messaging and grassroots mobilisation convince supporters that they are still voting for a common political objective,” he said.
Sivamurugan said this seat swap is one of the most important electoral tests in the Johor election.
“It is not simply about whether Bersatu or PAS is stronger individually but whether the support built under a united Perikatan in 2022 remains transferable after they went separate ways.
“The answer could shape not only these five constituencies but also future cooperation between the two parties as cracks are already emerging,” he added.
Under the seat-sharing arrangement for the July 11 election, Kemelah, Bukit Pasir, Serom, Senggarang and Tenggaroh have been allocated to Bersatu.
The party has named Uzzair Ismail in Kemelah, Mohd Idzharruddin Mohd Nasirruddin (Bukit Pasir), Mahfidz Omar (Serom), Datuk Mohd Rashid Hasnon (Senggarang) and Muhamad Amerul Muhamad (Tenggaroh).
For the latest updates on the 16th Johor state election,visit https://elections.thestar.com.my/
