PETALING JAYA: The leadership tussle in Perikatan Nasional, if not settled soon, will fracture and weaken the coalition in the upcoming Johor and Negri Sembilan state elections, say analysts.
They also said Bersatu president and Perikatan deputy chairman Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin’s challenge may be futile because PAS has an upper hand with Datuk Seri Dr Ahmad Samsuri in the saddle as an elected chairman.
With the Johor state election polling day just weeks away, analysts warn that everything is at stake for Perikatan, particularly for Bersatu, in Muhyiddin’s own home state.
Universiti Malaya political analyst Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub said Muhyiddin appears to be making a strategic effort to reassert his authority within Perikatan.
“The dispute is as much about institutional legitimacy as it is about political power.
“Bersatu is arguing that major coalition decisions should be made through proper constitutional channels rather than unilateral actions by any individual party or leader,” Tawfik pointed out.
“Bersatu appears more vulnerable because it relies heavily on PAS’ grassroot machinery and organisational strength.
“The public fallout also damages Perikatan’s image as a united Malay-Muslim political coalition, creating uncertainty among opposition supporters.
“Johor is expected to be the most affected state, as Bersatu needs a strong and coordinated opposition machinery to remain competitive.
“In Negri Sembilan, the impact may be less dramatic, but Perikatan’s ability to expand its support could be constrained,” Tawfik added.
Political analyst Dr Azmil Mohd Tayeb of Universiti Sains Malaysia said Muhyiddin’s faction in Perikatan might retain some seats in Johor out of loyalty to his long service to the state.
“But the same cannot be said for Negri,” said Azmil.
Universiti Teknologi Malaysia’s Dr Mazlan Ali said he expects the remaining Bersatu leaders, including Muhyiddin, to be booted out by PAS.
“With Muhyiddin fighting back, there is a possibility that PAS leadership in Perikatan might strike back harder and wipe out Bersatu altogether from the coalition.
“PAS has already attracted the support of Gerakan and MIPP by awarding them posts in the coalition supreme council,” says Mazlan.
According to International Islamic University Malaysia political science professor Syaza Farhana Mohamad Shukri the opposition would be stronger if they put on a united front instead of having an open fight with one another.
“But I think that Bersatu would be the one to lose the most,” she said.
“I think that PAS would do fine because it has Parti Wawasan Negara (Wawasan) to ‘replace’ Bersatu.
“But if it comes to a multi-cornered fight with Bersatu and Umno fighting for the same Malay votes, it could indirectly benefit Pakatan Harapan,” Syaza Farhana added.
She also noted that if the leadership tussle is prolonged, the main question would be about the use of the Perikatan logo in the upcoming elections.
“Who would represent Perikatan? Most likely PAS, as it currently holds both the chairman and secretary-general posts in the coalition.
“So where does that leave Bersatu? We understand that Bersatu doesn’t want to let go of Perikatan because the coalition has wider reach than Bersatu,” she said.
Prof Datuk Dr Sivamurugan Pandian of Universiti Sains Malaysia pointed out that if the leadership dispute continues to play out in public, the coalition risks entering the elections divided, creating uncertainty among supporters and complicating campaign coordination on the ground.
Asked if the reinstatement of Muhyiddin as Perikatan chairman would stabilise the coalition, Dr Sivamurugan said it would depend on whether PAS accepted the decision.
“A constitutional decision alone may not resolve underlying political disagreements if trust between the parties has already been affected,” he said.
