In field research that polled 404 registered voters in KKB representing all races, genders, age groups, and localities, Ilham Centre found that voter turnout may be lower than in the previous election, which recorded about 69%.
“Most outstation voters will not return and vote. Weather on polling day is another factor,” said Ilham Centre.
Ilham Centre also said there were 16 polling districts in KKB, of which Pakatan Harapan won 13 in the previous state elections while Perikatan won 3.
“By changing its candidates from Gerakan to Bersatu, Perikatan’s objective is to maintain the momentum achieved in the last state polls, especially to win as many Malay votes as possible and penetrate into Pakatan areas.
“This formula is to deny the magic number of 14,862 votes belonging to Pakatan in the last state polls as the unity government’s key to victory,” added Ilham Centre.
The survey also downplayed Perikatan’s campaign effectiveness that focused on identifying politics.
The report said that a hardline campaign that focuses on race and religion is ineffective and unsuitable in Kuala Kubu Baru since Selangor voters respond differently compared to Malay-majority voters in Kedah, Terengganu or Kelantan.
"It further pushes away non-Malay votes,” it said.
According to Ilham Centre, while some Malay voters may have shown support for Perikatan, about 74% of voters are still satisfied with the Selangor state government's performance, followed by 70.8% for Mentri Besar Datuk Seri Amirudin Shaari and 63% for the late Kuala Kubu Baharu assemblyman Lee Kee Hiong.
"Only a handful of Malay voters showed support for PH. They have a different view from the majority group, pointing out that the country's political reality requires inter-ethnic power sharing according to the demographics of a plural society in Malaysia," it added.
The KKB polls will see a four-cornered fight between Pakatan, Perikatan, PRM and an independent candidate.
