DONALD Trump’s olive branch to North Korea’s Kim Jong-un at the expense of a long-standing ally comes at a pivotal moment for US security ties in Asia, as partners from Japan to India reassess how much they can rely on Washington.
The US President’s abrupt decision to cut back military drills with South Korea, which he described as hostile to Pyongyang, has reinforced fears that Trump’s unpredictability could strain alliances that have long maintained peace in the region, government officials and security experts said.
Japan worries that it could also find itself in Trump’s cross-hairs as it embarks on thorny security negotiations, and India is growing less certain of its place in Washington’s strategic calculus.
“The decision will certainly fuel growing doubts in the region about US security commitments,” said Jeremy Chan, a senior analyst with political risk consultancy Eurasia Group and former US diplomat in Japan and China.
Adding to the anxiety, the United States cancelled another military exercise with South Korea scheduled for this month, Seoul said, after Washington cited constraints on US forces due to the Iran conflict.
Trump has been frustrated by the failure of US allies to support the conflict and made it clear that many of them must spend more on their own defence, a White House official said when asked about such concerns.
He is eager to restart talks with North Korea and secure a win on the international stage to counter his unpopular conflict with Iran, according to a person briefed on discussions between US and South Korean officials.
‘Extremely troubling’
Trump’s push to meet Kim – which has so far drawn a frosty response from Pyongyang – could backfire and embolden nuclear-armed North Korea, said Itsunori Onodera, an influential Japanese lawmaker and former defence minister.
Such a prospect is “extremely troubling” for Tokyo, he said on a Fuji TV news programme.
Despite Trump’s overtures, Pyongyang fired a volley of ballistic missiles off its east coast, triggering alerts in neighbouring South Korea and Japan.
What worries Japanese officials more is Trump’s approach as Tokyo embarks on talks with Washington over how much it should pay towards the cost of hosting US forces, America’s largest overseas deployment.
Japan is bracing for the possibility that Trump could, with little warning, demand a sharp hike that would be politically difficult to swallow, said a senior Japanese government official, requesting anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.
Trump could also wield upcoming US military exercises with Japan in October as leverage, analysts say.
Officials in Washington and Tokyo said they did not expect the exercises to be curtailed, though Trump could change his mind at any point, they cautioned.
The drills, known as Keen Sword, may already be smaller than their 2024 iteration because of the diversion of US assets and personnel to the conflict with Iran.
That shift – which recently saw America’s only forward-deployed aircraft carrier in Asia, the USS George Washington, depart for the Middle East to relieve the beleaguered USS Abraham Lincoln – has stirred concern that US deterrence in the region is being eroded.
‘Very, very cautious’
Trump’s latest actions have also rocked confidence in India, where the United States risks squandering years of efforts to draw New Delhi closer as a counterweight to Russia and China, security analysts say.
It also comes after the Pentagon’s decision in June to rename its Asia military headquarters to Pacific Command from Indo-Pacific Command, a move some analysts say is a sign India is no longer as strategically important to Washington.
The Pentagon denied any such shift. But Trump’s steep tariffs on Indian exports and repeated claims that he had mediated an India-Pakistan ceasefire had already exasperated New Delhi.
Officials there are now “very, very cautious” about committing to long-term defence deals with Washington, according to two Indian sources with knowledge of the matter.
“The latest decision only reinforces President Trump’s transactional view of foreign affairs and serves as a reminder that differences over specific policies, even among allies, can carry costs for the broader bilateral relationship,” said Pearl Pandya, senior analyst at Armed Conflict Location & Event Data, a conflict monitoring group. — Reuters
